Modi sarkar's bure din: Body blow to BJP in states it ruled with majorities

The real question, however, is whether the BJP will draw the right lessons from the results at the end of 2018 for next year's general elections and return to aspirational politics.

Whatever the final position of various parties turns out to be, it is evident that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has suffered severe body blows in the three Hindi heartland states it rules with substantial majorities – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

It is too far behind in Chhattisgarh and will most likely not form the next government. The trends as of noon on the counting day show the Congress in the lead in the other two states as well, although these races are quite tight. Rajasthan would likely see a Congress government, though with a smaller majority than it expected. If at all the BJP wins Madhya Pradesh, it would do so by the proverbial skin of its teeth. That should come as no surprise (except to diehard BJP supporters) as all opinion surveys and most exit polls had predicted this outcome.

It would be tempting to attribute this result to the anti-incumbency factor said to be prevalent in these states, perhaps twice over, because the BJP rules the Centre as well. Analysts may also cite the case of Mizoram, where the governing Congress is staring at a major loss to the Mizo National Front.

That would be lazy thinking. The Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) will retain power in what appears to be a landslide, not anticipated even by its most optimistic champions. And not to forget, both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh had not displayed any aversion to their ruling dispensations in the two previous elections. We need a better understanding of how elections are won or lost.

There are two ways of managing a contest, including elections. The first is to show the best side of the contesting entity, what good it has done or is capable of and promising to do. The other is to count the faults of the opponent, by implication claiming oneself to be the less bad one. History not just in India but the world over provides us numerous examples of the positive approach being rewarded with success and hardly anywhere the fear of the other has an overwhelming appeal. This is because there could be consensus on what constitutes good – prosperity, stability, peace and a comforting sense of well-being.

But the negatives are somewhat relative: A scion succeeding the parent is not always considered a bad thing because that is the natural order of things. Similarly, in a country mired in influence peddling, corruption is a fact of life and bothersome only if affects the voter’s immediate existence.

Indira Gandhi had her greatest electoral triumph in 1971 because she was able to highlight the good she had done. Popular perception was that both bank nationalisation and ending privy purses were actions contributing to the common good. Her opponents were seen as a band of ragtag leaders desperately in search of issues. Even in these elections, the TRS government successfully projected its record, be it in making Hyderabad an exciting metro, or addressing the farm distress with loan waivers and the rythu bandhu schemes, or providing access to affordable housing, to gain handsomely at the hustings.

Business Standard