As BJP loses 3 states to Congress, battle for 2019 has become more exciting

The assembly elections in five states have shown that the BJP can be shaken up, even defeated, by strong, strategic opposition alliances.

After the victory of the Congress in all three Hindi heartland states in the tightly-fought assembly elections, some contours about the political scenario in the next few months are becoming sharper. With general elections barely six months away, both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the opposition parties will have drawn lessons from the results and the voting patterns.

The coming days will see the granular details being discussed and analysed, but it is now apparent that the big themes of these elections were three: rural distress is real and can impact voting; religious polarisation is not a big vote catcher beyond keeping the faithful energised; and also, the BJP can be shaken up, even defeated, by strong, strategic opposition alliances.

Farmers all over the country are hurting and where they saw an effort to acknowledge and alleviate their problems, they rewarded the government, such as in Telangana where cash transfers to farmers were made by the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samiti. With the old fervour for Telangana having subsided, sub-nationalism was not a particularly potent theme the way it was in the last elections in 2014.

Shivraj Singh Chauhan tried to position his state as a place where agriculture was doing well, but the firing on farmers in Mandsaur in June 2017 was a black mark. Even so, his personal popularity has held and he must have got the support of some sections of the rural electorate.

The lesson for states and for the Central government is therefore loud and clear – you ignore the farmer at your own peril. Expect more sops being offered to farmers in the coming months, though whether it will make any real difference remains to be seen.

The spate of lynchings may have pleased the hardcore Hindutva types, but it cannot swing the voter angry with the government, as was seen in Rajasthan. Vasundhara Raje had alienated several sections of the electorate and the voters have taught her a lesson. The Yogi Adityanath brand of spreading hate can be counter-productive – no doubt voters of Telangana were not impressed with his promise to change the name of Hyderabad or to ensure that the Owaisis would run away from the state like the “Nizam had done”, a historical untruth. If the BJP plans to use Adityanath in the run-up to the 2019 elections, it may want to reconsider how and where they deploy him.

The opposition parties must have taken note of these developments and swift calculations must be going on about positioning and tactics for the 2019 elections. The show of unity two days before the results, where almost all opposition leaders, including Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal showed up but Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati did not, is a precursor of the times to come.

Business Standard