Our experience with earlier epidemics such as SARS, EBOLA and ZICA does suggest that medical science will find out a solution sooner than later.
Coronavirus
scare has acted as a catalyst for global equity meltdown and India is
not an exception to this. It is difficult to call when the
coronavirus scare will come under control. Our experience with
earlier epidemics such as SARS, EBOLA and ZICA does suggest that
medical science will find out a solution sooner than later.
India
obviously has short-term pain to endure from global
growth slowdown and equity meltdown.
However,
there are few benefits from Coronavirus scare.
-
Oil prices have crashed from $68 a barrel to $50 a barrel and are
likely to remain subdued for some time.
-
India runs official trade deficit of $58 billion with China. Due to
coronavirus-led supply chain disruption, this deficit can come down
significantly. This, in turn, will encourage local manufacturing.
-
Many global companies would like to diversify their supply chain from
China due to increasing cost and heavy concentration. If India can
invite all those companies and become part of global supply chain
management, then growth will get a big boost.
Foreign
portfolio investors (FPIs) have been heavy sellers in last week as
they scaled back risk. This might continue until there is a solution
for coronavirus.
However, this volatility will provide an opportunity for long-term
investors to buy, if our experience of SARS, EBOLA is an indicator.
There
was a lot of panic during SARS and EBOLA outbreak. However, medical
science found a cure and the world continued moving forward. From the
lows of SARS, the Nifty50 index has gained 10-fold by now. That said,
it is difficult to predict how much the market will go down from
current levels, as it will be dependent upon how soon and effectively
coronavirus gets controlled.
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