Covid-19: Investors bullish on US stocks, but doubt looms despite rally

After a slump into bear market territory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged over 20% from its recent low last week, which by one definition suggested a new bull market.

After a brutal meltdown, some investors have been wading back into U.S. stocks. But others are wary of another leg down as the coronavirus spreads and its economic impact is difficult to predict.

High-profile investors from BlackRock Inc to billionaire William Ackman have turned more bullish on equities in recent days, as unprecedented stimulus from the Federal Reserve, a $2.2 trillion stimulus bill signed Friday, and a call by President Donald Trump to get the United States back to work in weeks rather than months sparked the biggest weekly rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1938.

But other investors, economists, and strategists are fearful of advising a jump back in, with no certainty about when the coronavirus outbreak will be under control.

"People are trying to time the bottom and that's indicative of an early bear market, when people have hope," said Richard Bernstein, chief executive officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. "The beginning of a bull market starts with complete despair, when you've killed hope."

Bernstein said he was a "data hawk" and was looking for a combination of "improving fundamentals" - eyeing the basic health of the asset, rather than trading patterns - and "total disbelief," adding that in 2009 investors did not believe the bull market was real.

After a slump into bear market territory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged over 20% from its recent low last week, which by one definition suggested a new bull market. That definition, however, should be treated with significant caution.

BofA said on Friday that its Bull & Bear Indicator - a key market measure used to track positioning - had hit "maximum bearish," which could imply a rebound. However, that could have been borne out by the rally seen in the past week.

Ackman, whose Pershing Square LP fund gained a net 6.8% this month according to one investor, wrote to investors last week to say he had taken off credit market hedges and invested the money in new and existing stock holdings after turning "increasingly positive" on stock and credit markets.