Thursday, March 26, 2020

Will the RBI cut interest rates today? Here's what top brokerages expect


While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI originally was slated to meet in the first week of April, the central bank in a surprise move is holding a briefing today.



The government provided Rs 1.7 trillion package aimed at providing relief to the poor and marginalized sections of society. Most experts have termed it as the first tranche of the relief measures from the authorities and expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to follow it up with a cut in interest rates besides announcing other liquidity support measures.

While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI originally was slated to meet in the first week of April, the central bank in a surprise move is holding a briefing today. Here is what leading brokerages expect from the central bank.

Brickwork Ratings
In keeping with the promise of the RBI Governor that the RBI will do whatever it takes, it is reasonable to expect a sharp reduction in the borrowing costs. We expect the RBI to continue with its liquidity infusing tools such as open market operations (OMOs), forex swaps and long-term refinance options (LTROs), but also to announce measures to support corporates suffering from business losses due to the pandemic outbreak.

As the ongoing slowdown will drastically impact the financial health of many sectors, we expect the RBI to introduce forbearance measures towards the most affected or stressed sectors, and extend the repayment schedule and moratorium, along with implementing other measures, to avoid large NPAs and reduce risk weights. We expect the RBI to continue with accommodative monetary policy actions and stance; and cut the repo rate by 50 basis points.

Nomura
We believe the RBI is running the risk of falling behind in terms of proactive policy intervention, especially with the magnitude of shocks currently hitting the Indian economy and the financial system. So far, the measures have been on increasing domestic and dollar liquidity to ease financial conditions.

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