It estimates that glaciers worldwide are likely to lose anywhere from 18-36% of their mass by 2100.
Melting
glaciers worldwide could result in almost 10 inches of sea level
rise by the end of this century, a study warns.
The
research, published in the Journal of Glaciology, indicates that the
smaller glaciers could play a much larger role in sea level rise than
researchers had previously thought.
The
review is the most comprehensive global comparison of glacier
simulations ever compiled, researchers said.
It
estimates that glaciers worldwide are likely to lose anywhere from 18
to 36 per cent of their mass by 2100.
"The
clear message is that there's mass loss -- substantial mass loss --
all over the world," said Regine Hock, from the University
Alaska Fairbanks in the US.
The
anticipated loss of ice varies by region, but the pattern is evident.
"We
have more than 200 computer simulations, and they all say the same
thing. Even though there are some differences, that's really
consistent," Hock said.
This
is the only comprehensive and systematic endeavour to date to compare
global-scale glacier models and their projections.
The
study compared 214 glacier simulations from six research groups
around the world and "all of them paint the same picture,"
Hock said.
Researchers
examined the mass changes for over 200,000 glaciers worldwide,
totalling an area equal to the size of Texas.
The
study does not include the vast ice sheets in Greenland or
Antarctica,
whose behaviour is different from mountain and land-based glaciers
and which require unique modeling methods.
The
results indicate that the smaller glaciers could play a much larger
role in sea level rise than researchers had previously thought.
Most
research has focused on ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, due
to their size and prominence, but the effect of smaller glaciers is
significant.
"We
confirm that they are really substantial contributors to sea level
rise," Hock said.
For
example, Alaska's 25,000 glaciers will lose between 30 per cent and
50 per cent of their mass by the end of this century. Once they do,
Alaska will be the largest global regional sea level contributor in
Northern Hemisphere, apart from Greenland.
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