India is likely to see a wave of peaks in Covid-19 cases, say experts

Looking at India numbers makes little sense, as handful of states dominate growth in cases.

India is likely to see a wave of peaks in Covid-19 cases across the country instead of one single high, with the coronavirus spreading at a different pace in most states, experts said.

While most epidemiologists have predicted a peak of infection in late July-August, many feel the concept of a national peak is nebulous. The three states — Maharashtra, Delhi, and Tamil Nadu — with highest case-counts are slowing down, but infections in eastern and southern states are surging.

“I do not see a national peak soon, but I see a wave of peaks cascading through the nation in the next two months. It simply depends on how we behave and how policies are implemented,” Bhramar Mukherjee, professor of epidemiology, Michigan University, said.

According to latest health ministry data, 86 per cent of the Covid-19 cases come from just 10 states, making for an uneven spread. Therefore, looking at Indiawide numbers makes little sense, experts say, given that the growth in case numbers is dominated by a handful of states.

“Different states should have different progressions and they will not be in step with each other. This means that we should look at a really granular scale, of districts and sub-districts, and zones in cities, to understand the progression of the disease,” Gautam Menon, professor of computational biology and theoretical physics, Ashoka University.

Delhi govt issues guidelines for domestic travel: All you should know

Some trains to ferry stranded migrants and others have already started running while domestic air services resumed from Monday.

The Delhi government on Monday issued guidelines for domestic travel -- air/train/interstate bus -- in the wake of coronavirus outbreak.

According to the guidelines, asymptomatic passengers will be permitted to go with advice that they shall self monitor their health for 14 days. In case, they develop any symptoms, they shall inform the concerned Delhi Disaster Management Authority (DDMA) or state helpline number.

"All passengers shall be advised to download the Aarogya Setu app on their mobile devices. Those having moderate or severe symptoms will be admitted to dedicated Covid health facilities. Those having mild symptoms will be given the option of home isolation or isolated in the Covid Care Centre, both public and private facilities," the guidelines said.

ALSO READ: Coronavirus LIVE: WHO pauses hydroxychloroquine trial over safety concerns

Some trains to ferry stranded migrants and others have already started running while domestic air services resumed from Monday after two months. The Railways will operate 200 passenger trains from June 1.

Meanwhile, the DDMA directed all District Magistrates to appoint a Sub-Divisional Magistrate (SDM) level officer as nodal officer with a sufficient number of team members for facilitating home isolated persons, with a dedicated mobile number in each district.

Fitch highlights India's two big challenges in fight against coronavirus

The significant inefficiency, dysfunctioning and acute shortage of the healthcare delivery systems in the public sector do not match up with the growing needs of the population, says the report.

Despite additional funding, the continued lack of medical investment and healthcare infrastructure will present challenges to mounting an effective response in India against Covid-19 pandemic, Fitch Solutions has said.

"The continued lack of medical funding and healthcare infrastructure inform our view for the potential epidemic to be worse in India if it is not adequately contained," Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research (a unit of Fitch Group) said in its outlook for India's pharmaceutical market, news agency PTI reported.

With 8.5 hospital beds per 10,000 citizens and eight physicians per 10,000, the country's healthcare sector is not equipped for such a crisis.

Moreover, the significant inefficiency, dysfunctioning and acute shortage of the healthcare delivery systems in the public sector do not match up with the growing needs of the population.

In addition, more than 80 per cent of the population still does not have any significant health insurance coverage, and approximately 68 per cent of the Indians have limited or no access to essential medicines.

Furthermore, over the last two decades, the availability of free medicines in public healthcare facilities has declined from 31.2 per cent to 8.9 per cent for inpatient care, and from 17.8 per cent to 5.9 per cent for outpatient care, the rating agency said citing a Public Health Foundation of India study.

28,941 samples tested on April 15, says ICMR; WHO lauds health ministry

ICMR has also issued a list of 176 government laboratories and 78 private laboratories for the coronavirus testing.

Continuing its fight against coronavirus, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) said a total of 2,74,599 samples have been tested for Covid-19 detection so far, with 28,941 samples being tested on Wednesday.

The samples were taken from 2,58,730 individuals which is lower than the samples tested because many suspected patients were tested more than once, according to the statement released by ICMR.

On April 15, till 9 p.m., 28,941 samples have been reported, out of which 953 were found positive for Covid-19.

"At least 11,297 individuals have been confirmed positive among suspected cases and contacts of known positive cases in India," it said.

ICMR has also issued a list of 176 government laboratories and 78 private laboratories for the coronavirus testing.

ALSO READ: Coronavirus LIVE: India cases at 12380; IMF and WHO back India's efforts

Delhi has 8 government labs, including AIIMS, Lady Hardinge Medical College, National Centre for Disease Control, Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital, Institute of Liver & Biliary Sciences, Army Hospital Research & Referral, Maulana Azad Medical College, Vardhman Mahavir Medical College and Safdarjung Hospital.

Other than Delhi, there are 17 in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, 15 in Uttar Pradesh, 12 in Karnataka, 10 in Kerala, nine in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, eight in Rajasthan, seven in Andhra Pradesh, five in Assam and Bihar among others.

Covid-19: Centre asks banks to delay declaring companies' accounts as NPAs

FIEO President Sharad Kumar Saraf said that the spread of Covid-19 to over 144 countries points to the most challenging times for the exports sector.

Centre should ask banks to delay declaring companies' accounts as NPAs for one year due to the economic fallout of COVID-19, the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said.

FIEO President Sharad Kumar Saraf said that the spread of Covid-19 to over 144 countries points to the most challenging times for the exports sector.

"Banks may be asked to delay the declaring companies' accounts as NPA for 1 year as the lack of business coupled with fixed cost will make many accounts NPAs," he said in a statement.

"The existing working credit limits of exporters with the banks may be automatically enhanced by 25 per cent, if so desired... All existing Export Promotion Schemes must continue till March 31, 2021 at least."

He said that as per current trend, MSMEs particularly in employment intensive sectors like carpets, handicrafts, apparels, footwear, gems and jewellery, marine and perishable, with their major market in Europe and the US are likely to be worst affected particularly in first quarter of FY 2020-2021.

IndiGo gives profit warning following dip in bookings over Coronavirus

Flight occupancy dropped on domestic routes as individuals and companies canceled events and postponed travel.

IndiGo expects the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis and depreciation of the rupee to hit profit in the fourth quarter. IndiGo, the largest domestic airline by market share, has issued the profit warning following a dip in bookings because of the spread of COVID-19 in the country.

“We cancelled our flights to China and Hong Kong and reduced frequency to certain other Southeast Asian markets. This capacity was redeployed in other markets without having a material impact on our revenues. Over the past few days, however, week-on-week, we have seen a 15-20 per cent decline in our daily bookings. We expect our quarterly earnings to be materially impacted because of these factors,” the airline said in a stock exchange notification on Wednesday.

It added that sharp depreciation in rupee, too, would have an adverse impact on its dollar-denominated liabilities, primarily on account of capitalised operating leases.

ALSO READ: Coronavirus outbreak: It's safe to travel, SpiceJet, GoAir tell customers

Flight occupancy dropped on domestic routes as individuals and companies canceled events and postponed travel. Last-minute fares, too, have declined 20-25 per cent on key metro routes over a dip in demand. While the plunge in crude oil price benefits the airline, the relief could be limited thanks to sluggish demand.

InterGlobe Aviation, which runs IndiGo, had reported a threefold increase in its pre-tax profit to Rs 556 crore in the third quarter of financial year 2019-20 (FY20) on strong revenue growth. In an investor conference call after the results, it had said modification of its Airbus A320neo engines would be completed by May, but indicated a challenging fourth quarter because of lean season and COVID-19 threat.

China virus death toll reaches 1,110; world warned of 'very grave threat'

Coronavirus is believed to have emerged last year in a market that sells wild animals in Hubei's capital Wuhan, the city at the centre of the outbreak.

The number of fatalities from China's new coronavirus epidemic jumped to 1,110 nationwide on Wednesday after hard-hit Hubei province reported 94 new deaths.

In its daily update, Hubei's health commission also confirmed another 1,638 new cases in the central province, where the outbreak emerged in December. There are now more than 44,200 confirmed cases across China, based on previously released figures from the government.

The new virus is believed to have emerged last year in a market that sells wild animals in Hubei's capital Wuhan, the city at the centre of the outbreak. The virus was officially named "COVID-19" at a conference in Geneva held by the World Health Organization, where the body's chief said countries had a chance of stopping its global spread.

WHO head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Tuesday that although 99 percent of cases are in China, where it remains "very much an emergency," it also "holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world." He urged countries to share data in order to further research the disease.

Chinese authorities dismissed two senior health officials from Hubei on Tuesday, where tens of millions of people have been under lockdown since late last month, and tightened restrictions in its capital Wuhan.