India is likely to see a wave of peaks in Covid-19 cases, say experts

Looking at India numbers makes little sense, as handful of states dominate growth in cases.

India is likely to see a wave of peaks in Covid-19 cases across the country instead of one single high, with the coronavirus spreading at a different pace in most states, experts said.

While most epidemiologists have predicted a peak of infection in late July-August, many feel the concept of a national peak is nebulous. The three states — Maharashtra, Delhi, and Tamil Nadu — with highest case-counts are slowing down, but infections in eastern and southern states are surging.

“I do not see a national peak soon, but I see a wave of peaks cascading through the nation in the next two months. It simply depends on how we behave and how policies are implemented,” Bhramar Mukherjee, professor of epidemiology, Michigan University, said.

According to latest health ministry data, 86 per cent of the Covid-19 cases come from just 10 states, making for an uneven spread. Therefore, looking at Indiawide numbers makes little sense, experts say, given that the growth in case numbers is dominated by a handful of states.

“Different states should have different progressions and they will not be in step with each other. This means that we should look at a really granular scale, of districts and sub-districts, and zones in cities, to understand the progression of the disease,” Gautam Menon, professor of computational biology and theoretical physics, Ashoka University.