Does Trump's defeat in US elections signal the start of populism's decline?

 

Populist leaders may have lost their most prominent champion, but their economic, social and political grievances remain potent.

When Hungary’s populist prime minister, Viktor Orban, joined a parade of foreign leaders in congratulating President-elect Joe Biden this week, he conspicuously failed to note that Mr. Biden had actually beaten his friend, President Donald Trump.

Like other right-wing populists, from Britain and Brazil to Poland and Germany, Mr. Orban was still coming to grips with the defeat of populism’s flamboyant standard-bearer in the White House. The Hungarian leader acknowledged that a victory by Mr. Donald Trump was his “Plan A.” There wasn’t really a Plan B.

While Mr. Trump’s defeat is a stinging blow to his populist allies, its consequences for populism as a global political movement are more ambiguous. Mr. Trump, after all, won more votes than any American presidential candidate in history aside from Mr. Biden, which attests to the enduring appeal of his message.

The economic, social and political grievances that fed populist and xenophobic movements in many countries are still alive, and indeed, may be reinforced by the ravages of the coronavirus pandemic. Social media continues to spread populist ideas, often cloaked in conspiracy theories designed to sow doubt about the scientific facts behind the virus or the legitimacy of the electoral process that brought about Mr. Trump’s defeat.

“It’s arguably the most consequential election in our lifetime, but I would be very cautious about a mood swing toward believing populism is finished,” said Timothy Garton Ash, a professor of European studies at Oxford University.