India, with its market potential, and as a complement to the US
economy stands to gain if it plays its cards right.
Personal vs
institutional, bilateral “favouritism” vs multilateralism, mood vs process,
bluster vs restraint, mercurial vs considered... Donald
Trump’s international economic policy was a populist mix of harking back to
“splendid isolation”, muscular 'my way or the highway' approach, and his 'art
of the deal'. At its heart, though, it had a domestic focus. It was left to the
bureaucracy to keep trade discussions going — distinct from Trump’s tweets.
As Joe
Biden shapes to his trade policy, he faces a vastly changed world from what
he left in 2016:
* Covid:
“Rebuilding” the US economy (not just capital markets) will drive policy. A
challenge bigger than the 'Great Depression' and the global financial crisis is
exacerbated by accelerating technological changes making whole industries
obsolete.
* China: It has
become an adversary for global dominance, not an opportunity. The China story
gets even more complex with the developing Russia-China “axis” in play.
* Protectionism
and challenges to multilateralism: Trump’s 'America First' policy and success
with Canada, Nafta, etc, and growing reservations about free trade make major
shifts in trade policy a political hot-potato.
* Climate change
back to the fore: Four years of Trump denials did not make climate change
disappear. It will be an integral part of international trade discussions.
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