Central banks may be forced to sell gold; India at risk: Chris Wood

According to reports, official gold reserves in India totaled 653 tonnes at the end of March 2020, while those in Saudi totaled 323 tonnes.

There is a growing risk of liquidation of gold in India caused by a lockdown-triggered collapse in economic growth, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his weekly note to investors, GREED & fear.

The potential for forced selling in gold, Wood believes, could come from central banks given the dramatic fiscal deterioration being suffered by many countries. India, he said, is at risk given its substantial gold holdings.

“Another potential seller is Saudi Arabia where fiscal pressures caused a draconian threefold increase in the value-added tax (VAT) rate to 15 per cent and the suspension of cost of living allowances,” Wood said.

Given this backdrop, he feels gold prices may not break the $1800-1900 level in a hurry. “Still what investors should remember is that when gold finally takes out the 2011 high of $1921/ounce, it will be the proverbial ‘blue sky’,” Wood wrote.

According to reports, official gold reserves in India totaled 653 tonnes at the end of March 2020, while those in Saudi totaled 323 tonnes.

Bearish on banking stocks

The growing pressure on banks to offer and even extend the moratorium on payment of installments seems to have Wood bearish on the sector, especially in the Indian context. In his Asia Pacific ex-Japan portfolio, Wood has exited his holding in Kotak Bank and replaced it with Maruti Suzuki.

“This issuance of forbearance pressure on banks is not just an issue for India but one for bank stocks globally. It is why bank stocks would not be GREED & fear’s favourite way to add to cyclical exposure for those who buy GREED & fear’s base case that the health crisis will prove to be a three to four-month cycle and that life will return to normal much sooner than currently assumed by the chattering classes,” he wrote.