'A major earthquake may hit Delhi': Geologists on recent tremors across NCR

"We cannot predict time, place or exact scale, but do believe that there is a consistent seismic activity going around in the NCR region and can trigger in a major earthquake in Delhi," says Dr K Sain.

Ten low to moderate intensity tremors shaking Delhi-NCR in the span of one and a half month indicate that a powerful earthquake could strike India's National Capital in near future, warn some of the top geologists of the country.

"We cannot predict time, place or exact scale, but do believe that there is a consistent seismic activity going around in the NCR region and can trigger in a major earthquake in Delhi," said Dr Kalachand Sain, Chief of Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, a premier autonomous institute, run under Union Ministry of Science and Technology.

Unfortunately, Delhi falls under high-risk seismic zones and its border towns are witness to mushrooming growth of high rise private buildings, plenty of them which do not adhere to mandatory guidelines of Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) set for earthquake-resistant construction.

What would happen if an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or 6.0 hits the NCR? Replying to this frequently asked question, Professor Chandon Ghose of IIT-Jammu, an expert on earthquake engineering said, "Friday's (May 29) twin tremors which shook Delhi were measured at 4.5...but had it been a little more intense, the impact would have been serious. At Richter scale 6.0, the effect of the earthquake in Delhi would be devastating. Many buildings would be razed to dust."

In fact, innumerable high rise buildings in Noida, Gurugram and neighbouring areas of Delhi blatantly violate BIS norms.

"Everyone knows that Delhi-NCR falls under seismic zone-4, and it's prone to tremors but still most of the builders do not conform to the norms of BIS. There is a nexus between architects and builders which somehow compromise the stringent earthquake (resistant) codes. So, on any given day, if an earthquake of higher magnitude strikes here, the consequences would be grievous," said Professor Chandan Ghos