Monday, December 23, 2019

Has India's growth slowdown bottomed out? Animal spirits indicate so


Despite the green shoots, the economy is set for another quarter of sub-par growth, and still in need of support from the government and the central bank heading into 2020.


India’s economy showed nascent signs it may be turning a corner after six straight months of anemic activity.

Two of the eight high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg News came in stronger in November based on a three-month weighted average reading, although that wasn’t enough to move the needle on a gauge measuring overall activity.

The dashboard measures “animal spirits,” a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action.

Despite the green shoots, the economy is set for another quarter of sub-par growth, and still in need of support from the government and the central bank heading into 2020. The focus will now turn to the government’s annual budget due Feb. 1, with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman saying she’s working toward improving consumption.

The dominant services index rebounded last month, driven by higher orders and strengthening business confidence. The IHS Markit India Services Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a four-month high of 52.7 in November, the first time in three months that the reading has been above the 50 mark, which indicates expansion. The index is still below its long-run average of 54.2.

The manufacturing sector activity also improved in November, resulting in the composite PMI index jumping to 52.7 from 49.6.

The surveys showed input cost inflation for the services sector quickened to a 13-month high, while manufacturing input prices rose marginally.

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