IT catches Covid-19 bug: Sector's outlook takes a hit on demand concerns

Analysts expect top line pressure to reflect from Q4 itself.

Information Technology (IT) stocks, which were considered as ‘defensive’ until recently, have been under heavy pressure due to demand concerns caused by the outbreak.

The Nifty IT index has shed close to 20 per cent in a month, in line with the Nifty50. The expected earnings pressure, mainly on account of a tepid top line, is weighing on sentiment.

Analysts expect top line pressure to start reflecting from the March quarter itself, given the supply-side disruption amid the lockdown and business disruption in key markets such as the US and Europe. Besides lower billing and utilisation (lower productivity on account of travel restrictions), the disruption will also hit margins, despite a sharp depreciation in the rupee.

The major impact will be felt in H1FY21 (April-September 2020), with demand from clients expected to be sluggish. This will hurt earnings visibility for the entire FY21, given the first half is typically vital for the sector. This is when most of their clients announce their IT budgets.

Therefore, analysts at HDFC Securities have slashed their earnings estimates by up to 12 per cent for top IT players, and by a sharper (up to 28 per cent) magnitude for mid and small IT companies.

According to Sanjeev Hota, head (research) at Sharekhan: “The rapid spread of the virus has caused disruption in the supply side, and is likely to impact demand in the near term, driven by the cut in discretionary spending by clients, lower billing, and pricing pressure.”

This will impact IT firms’ financial services segment (mainly on account of lower global interest rates) and the retail sector, and consequently take a toll on overall revenue growth, as these two segments contribute 30-45 per cent to revenues of most players. Other analysts expect no growth in 2020-21 (FY21).

In 120 years, equity returns have outpaced bonds & bills: Credit Suisse

In all, Credit Suisse has included 26 countries for the study as a part of this Yearbook.

Market News : Adjusted for inflation, equities as an asset class have returned 5.2 per cent on an annualised basis over the past 120 years (since 1900), outpacing the returns by bonds at 2 per cent and bills at 0.8 per cent, says the latest Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2020.

The countries included in the Yearbook represented 98 per cent of the global equity market in 1900 and still represent over 91 per cent of the investable universe at the start of 2020. In all, Credit Suisse has included 26 countries for the study as a part of this Yearbook.

Over the past 120 years (since 1900), equities have outperformed bonds, bills and inflation in 21 countries. For the world as a whole, equities outperformed bills by 4.3 per cent per year and outperformed bonds by 3.1 per cent per year.

However, over the last decade, global equities performed well with an annualised real return of 7.6 per cent, as compared to real return of 3.6 per cent from bonds, Credit Suisse says. As regards bonds, Sweden has been the best-performing country in terms of real bond returns, with an annualized return of 2.7 per cent since 1900, followed by Switzerland, New Zealand and Canada with annualized returns of 2.4 per cent, 2.3 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively, the Credit Suisse study says.

“2019 was a superb year for equities, with the Yearbook world index returning 28 per cent (measured in US dollar terms). The best performing market was Russia, with a return of 56 per cent (in US dollar terms), followed by Switzerland at 33 per cent. The US equity market gave a return of 30 per cent. Despite very low start-year yields, bonds also performed well in 2019, with returns of 12 per cent in the US, 9 per cent in the UK and Switzerland, and just over 10 per cent (in US dollar terms) on the world index,” wrote Richard Kersley, head of global thematic research at Credit Suisse in the Yearbook 2020 co-authored with Nannette Hechler-Fayd'herbe, their chief investment officer for International Wealth Management.

Plastic fantastic: Visa, Mastercard could be the next $1 trillion companies

Stock prices of both Visa and Mastercard have gained roughly 50 per cent in the past year.

Tech and internet titans were the first to reach $1 trillion in stock market value, but the next U.S. companies that could do so are better known for their plastic.

Soaring stock prices are propelling credit and debit card companies Visa Inc and Mastercard Inc up the market value charts, where they currently rank 7th and 11th among companies in the benchmark S&P 500 index. The stock prices of both Visa and Mastercard have gained roughly 50% in the past year.

While the stocks may not keep up that torrid pace, Visa and Mastercard would each be worth over $1 trillion by 2023 if their average annual gains of the past three years were to continue, surging past the likes of Facebook Inc and Berkshire Hathaway Inc, if they also maintain their recent pace.

Fueling their rise is a shift toward cashless financial transactions spurred by a rise in online shopping.

ALSO READ: Stock up: Google-parent Alphabet joins $1 trillion valuation club

"Everything travels on their rails," said Sandy Villere, portfolio manager of the Villere Balanced Fund, which holds Visa shares. "They literally sit in the middle of the banks, consumers and merchants and that has been a really enviable place to be."

Visa had a market value of $449 billion and Mastercard's stood at about $324 billion as of Thursday's close. The $1 trillion club currently includes Apple Inc, Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet.

Amazon.com stood at $927 billion, though the e-commerce leader's shares jumped on the heels of its earnings report on Thursday after the bell, putting it in position to crack $1 trillion, as it did briefly in September 2018.

Revenue for both Visa and Mastercard nearly doubled over their past five fiscal years, to nearly $23 billion for Visa, and about $17 billion for Mastercard, according to Refinitiv data. Adjusted earnings per share more than doubled for both companies over that period.

Visa reported quarterly revenue late on Thursday that slightly missed analyst estimates, a day after Mastercard beat quarterly profit estimates