Analysts expect top line pressure to reflect from Q4 itself.
Information
Technology (IT) stocks, which were considered as ‘defensive’ until
recently, have been under heavy pressure due to demand concerns caused by the
outbreak.
The Nifty IT index
has shed close to 20 per cent in a month, in line with the Nifty50. The
expected earnings pressure, mainly on account of a tepid top line, is weighing
on sentiment.
Analysts expect top line pressure to start reflecting from the March quarter itself, given the supply-side disruption amid the lockdown and business disruption in key markets such as the US and Europe. Besides lower billing and utilisation (lower productivity on account of travel restrictions), the disruption will also hit margins, despite a sharp depreciation in the rupee.
The major impact
will be felt in H1FY21 (April-September 2020), with demand from clients
expected to be sluggish. This will hurt earnings visibility for the entire
FY21, given the first half is typically vital for the sector. This is when most
of their clients announce their IT budgets.
Therefore,
analysts at HDFC
Securities have slashed their earnings estimates by up to 12 per cent for
top IT players, and by a sharper (up to 28 per cent) magnitude for mid and
small IT companies.
According to
Sanjeev Hota, head (research) at Sharekhan: “The rapid spread of the virus has
caused disruption in the supply side, and is likely to impact demand in the
near term, driven by the cut in discretionary spending by clients, lower
billing, and pricing pressure.”
This will impact
IT firms’ financial services segment (mainly on account of lower global
interest rates) and the retail sector, and consequently take a toll on overall
revenue growth, as these two segments contribute 30-45 per cent to revenues of
most players. Other analysts expect no growth in 2020-21 (FY21).
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