Monday, October 19, 2020

Time to invest in cyclicals as economic recovery gathers steam: Analysts

 

Despite the large economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the markets have recovered sharply even though the performance among individual stocks has been quite polarized.



After a 52 per cent rally in the benchmark indices – the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 – form their respective March 2020 lows led by pharmaceutical, automobiles, information technology (IT) sectors and index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL), analysts now suggest investors should now rotate money to cyclical plays like banks and cement as the economic activity picks up pace.

"As the market repositions itself for the normalization of the economy, analysts at CLSA believe that core domestic sectors should start outperforming the global defensives like IT and pharma," wrote Vikash Kumar Jain, an investment analyst at CLSA in an October 16 note.

Despite the large economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the markets have recovered sharply even though the performance among individual stocks has been quite polarized. For instance, sectors which are seen as Covid-19 resistant, such as pharma and IT have been market leaders. Nifty IT and Nifty Pharma indices have moved up 80 per cent and 75 per cent, respectively from their March 2020 low, ACE Equity data show. In comparison, the Nifty50 index has gained 52 per cent.

At the other end of the spectrum are Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Bank, Nifty FMCG and Nifty Realty indices that have been relative laggards, and moved up 1 per cent to 45 per cent during this period, data show.

"This polarization is also evident from the fact that only 15 per cent of this universe of Covid-19-impacted stocks are above pre-Covid-19 levels versus a much larger around 70 per cent of the Covid-19 resilient names which have surpassed their respective pre-Covid-19 stock prices," Jain of CLSA wrote.

As an investment strategy, those at Credit Suisse Wealth Management, too, share a similar view and suggest investors increase exposure to private banks from a 12 – 18-month horizon.

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