India in community transmission, moving towards herd immunity: Expert

Clearly there is community transmission, as defined by any international standard, says eminent epidemiologist Dr Ramanan Laxminarayan.

India is seeing record spike in daily Covid-19 cases and the virus is spreading deep into the hinterland where social distancing is a herculean task. "It is going to be a tough few months ahead for the country, but things will get better over time," eminent epidemiologist and the director of US-based Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy, Dr Ramanan Laxminarayan said. In an interview with Business Standard, he also said there is clearly community transmission in India and the rampant spread of the virus indicates that we are gradually moving towards herd immunity. Edited Excerpts:

Six months into the Covid-19 pandemic, has India done enough so far to contain the outbreak?

The government has done some things well including on early leadership, and communicating the importance of a strong response. Testing has lagged behind and there has been some confusion around the science. The scientific leadership during this time has been confused between unrealistic vaccine deadlines, recommendations on hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) that are not validated with global data and the lack of much serious scientific research on Covid coming out of India. But overall, I would say that India has done reasonably well.

India is seeing over 45,000 daily cases for the past three days. What would be the peak scenario like and when do you see it coming?

It is really hard to get a correct picture because data are not being shared by the government. Without having the raw data on testing and outcomes, we can only guess. The summary figures seem to indicate a peaking epidemic in Delhi, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, a growing epidemic in some other places and a largely hidden epidemic in the largest states of UP, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. States that are testing more are both doing better at containment and are also reporting more cases. I would consider case reporting to be an indicator of the quality of the health system. And states that are hiding cases and deaths clearly have weak health systems and inadequate testing.