The bulk of seats that the BJP may lose is likely to be picked up by the Congress, dramatically altering its leveraging ability.
Business
Standard :There is unanimity that the keen contest resulting
in a photo finish in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan has thrown open the
race for 2019. It makes sense therefore, to examine electoral
statistics from the past and visualise emerging trends.
Needless
to say that in addition to the two states, Chhattisgarh – in which
the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost too – is part of the Hindi
heartland of north India. It is one of the two regions that propelled
Narendra Modi to power in 2014. When we talk about the Hindi
heartland, it refers to ten states – Himachal Pradesh, Haryana,
Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar,
Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and the Union Territory of Chandigarh.
Although
not really a separate region, the two other states in northern India
– Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir – have to be treated separately
while discussing politics in a general framework. But within the
context of the BJP’s performance in 2014, these can also be clubbed
with the heartland region for calculations in the run up to 2019
polls.
These
dozen states and the lone UT account for a total of 245 Lok Saha
seats, of which the BJP
won 196 in 2014. In addition, if you add the seats won by its
allies in Bihar and UP, the total is a difficult to repeat 211.
Essentially, in this block of states – which elects almost 45% of
Lok Sabha members – the BJP’s opponents won just 34 seats at the
height of the “Narendra Modi wave”.
On
the basis of seats won, the vote shares of the BJP and the Congress
in the recent assembly polls and most importantly, the swing away
from the BJP from the levels of the 2013 assembly elections (7%-9%)
and 2014 Lok Sabha elections (14%-17%), it is certain that there
would be significant fall in the BJP’s tally in these states.
In
2014, the BJP won 62 of the 65 Lok Sabha seats in the three heartland
states that elected new state governments recently. Based on its
current performance, the fall will be dramatic. Media analysis shows
the number of BJP seats would come down to 18 (10 from Madhya
Pradesh, eight from Rajasthan and none from Chhattisgarh).
It
has been argued, especially by BJP supporters or those who believe
that Modi still has the capacity to personally bolster his party to
previous levels, that these elections were fought on local issues. A
campaign rooted in the argument of ‘Modi and prime minister’
versus ‘someone at helm of a khichdi’ would gain acceptability
among voters and swing the verdict in BJP’s favour, they say.
Yet,
these states thrice voted in the same direction in the Lok
Sabha elections following assembly polls in 2003-04, 2008-09 and
2013-14. On the basis of the current political narrative, the BJP
appears unlikely to alter the narrative that resulted in major losses
for the party in rural and urban areas.
