Lok Sabha elections 2019: BJP may lose 70% seats in Hindi heartland, Congress to gain

The bulk of seats that the BJP may lose is likely to be picked up by the Congress, dramatically altering its leveraging ability.

Business Standard :There is unanimity that the keen contest resulting in a photo finish in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan has thrown open the race for 2019. It makes sense therefore, to examine electoral statistics from the past and visualise emerging trends.

Needless to say that in addition to the two states, Chhattisgarh – in which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost too – is part of the Hindi heartland of north India. It is one of the two regions that propelled Narendra Modi to power in 2014. When we talk about the Hindi heartland, it refers to ten states – Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and the Union Territory of Chandigarh.

Although not really a separate region, the two other states in northern India – Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir – have to be treated separately while discussing politics in a general framework. But within the context of the BJP’s performance in 2014, these can also be clubbed with the heartland region for calculations in the run up to 2019 polls.

These dozen states and the lone UT account for a total of 245 Lok Saha seats, of which the BJP won 196 in 2014. In addition, if you add the seats won by its allies in Bihar and UP, the total is a difficult to repeat 211. Essentially, in this block of states – which elects almost 45% of Lok Sabha members – the BJP’s opponents won just 34 seats at the height of the “Narendra Modi wave”.

On the basis of seats won, the vote shares of the BJP and the Congress in the recent assembly polls and most importantly, the swing away from the BJP from the levels of the 2013 assembly elections (7%-9%) and 2014 Lok Sabha elections (14%-17%), it is certain that there would be significant fall in the BJP’s tally in these states.

In 2014, the BJP won 62 of the 65 Lok Sabha seats in the three heartland states that elected new state governments recently. Based on its current performance, the fall will be dramatic. Media analysis shows the number of BJP seats would come down to 18 (10 from Madhya Pradesh, eight from Rajasthan and none from Chhattisgarh).

It has been argued, especially by BJP supporters or those who believe that Modi still has the capacity to personally bolster his party to previous levels, that these elections were fought on local issues. A campaign rooted in the argument of ‘Modi and prime minister’ versus ‘someone at helm of a khichdi’ would gain acceptability among voters and swing the verdict in BJP’s favour, they say.

Yet, these states thrice voted in the same direction in the Lok Sabha elections following assembly polls in 2003-04, 2008-09 and 2013-14. On the basis of the current political narrative, the BJP appears unlikely to alter the narrative that resulted in major losses for the party in rural and urban areas.

It is unlikely that voter sentiment will remain unaltered in the other Hindi speaking states. It’s possible that the BJP will witness nearly a 70% erosion in its seats held. If these calculations turn out to be true in 2019, the BJP’s tally in these states will fall from 196 to 59 – a loss of 137 seats.

Shiv Sena to BJP: Why don't you declare date for construction of Ram temple

Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray is scheduled to visit Ayodhya on November 25 as part of his party's push to build a Ram temple there.

The Shiv Sena Friday asked the BJP to come out with an ordinance and declare a date for the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya.

While slamming the BJP, the Sena said those in power should be proud of Shiv Sainiks who had "destroyed Babur's raj in Ram Janmabhoomi". The Babri Masjid was built in Ayodhya n the orders of Mughal emperor Babur.

In an editorial in party mouthpiece 'Saamana', the Sena said it neither moves around with a begging bowl asking for votes in the name of Lord Ram nor does it indulge in "jumlebaazi" (rhetoric) during polls.

Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray is scheduled to visit Ayodhya on November 25 as part of his party's push to build a Ram temple there.

"Why did those, who call themselves pro-Hindutva, start getting a stomach ache when we announced our plans of going to Ayodhya? We are not going there for political purposes," the Sena said in the editorial.

It claimed the party had not given the slogan "Chalo Ayodhya", but Shiv Sainiks were going there for Lord Ram's darshan and also because Ayodhya is "nobody's private place".

"There is no Ram raj there now, but the raj of the Supreme Court. However, in 1992, Balasaheb's Shiv Sainiks had destroyed Babur's raj in Ram Janmabhoomi. Instead of being scared and jealous of such Sainiks, those in power should be proud of them," the Sena editorial claimed.

It further said that instead of casting aspersions on the motive of Sainiks going to Ayodhya, the government should declare a date for the construction of the temple and put all suspicions to rest.

"We ask you ask once again, why don't you declare a date for the construction of the Ram temple? If the issue of Ram temple goes out of your hands, in 2019, apart from your 'rozi-roti' (livelihood), many people's tongues too will become handicapped," the editorial warned.

"Instead of doing everything to stop the Sena, we ask again, why don't you come out with an ordinance and declare a date for the construction of the temple," the editorial stated.

Business Standard

Modi says Congress doesn't want to credit people for choosing 'chaiwala'

He challenged the Congress to appoint someone from outside the Nehru-Gandhi family as party President for five years.

Exploiting to the hilt Congress leader Shashi Tharoor's recent remarks that a "chaiwala" became PM because of Jawaharlal Nehru's commitment to democracy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday attacked the Congress saying it was not ready to credit people for this but only a dynasty.

He challenged the Congress to appoint someone from outside the Nehru-Gandhi family as party President for five years. He would then accept that Nehru had built a democracy legacy.

"Do a little thing, if you respect democracy. If a chaiwala or Modi became the Prime Minister because of your faith in democracy, policies, role in constitution and due to Nehru, make any good Congress leader the President of your party for at least five years.

"I will accept that Nehruji had such a commitment to democracy that has led to a dedicated Congress leader becoming the President of the party," Modi said at a public meeting in Chhattisgarh's Ambikapur.

The Prime Minister's attack came after Congress leader Shashi Tharoor's remarks while re-launching his book "Nehru: The Invention of India" on November 13 that a chaiwala became the Prime Minister because of Nehru's policies and institution-building that provided for a democratic framework.

Modi said it will be good for the country if a person outside from the Nehru family became President of the Congress.

"I know it will be good when the country gets out of dynasty politics. But, they are not ready to give credit for this to the 1.25 crore people of this country that a chaiwala became the Prime Minister. They do not want to give credit to BJP and Modi. This is the result of their undemocratic thinking. For this too, they want to give its credit to Nehru," he added.

Business Standard

BJP and RSS trying to divide, spread hatred in India: Rahul Gandhi

Gandhi made the statement while addressing the Indian Overseas Congress on Thursday in Berlin.

Congress President Rahul Gandhi has lambasted the BJP and RSS, saying they were working "to divide and spread hatred" in India.

Gandhi made the statement while addressing the Indian Overseas Congress on Thursday in Berlin, the Congress said on Friday.

His address was not aired live due to a technical glitch.

ALSO READ: Rahul Gandhi slams mob lynchings and attacks on Dalits; BJP hits back

Interacting with the Indian-origin parliamentarians, Gandhi said that "the government which is now ruling in India, the Bharatiya Janata Party and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, want to divide and spread hatred in the country.

The Congress party will not let this happen".

Gandhi said the strength of India lies in listening to the views of every citizen, irrespective of his/her religion or caste.

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Rahul Gandhi hugs PM Modi, says 'this is what it means to be a Hindu'

PM Modi recovered quickly and called Gandhi back and patted him on the back.

He is known for his hugs, but this was one hug Prime Minister Narendra Modi was not expecting.

After a no-holds-barred and scathing criticism of Modi on several issues including Rafale jet deal today, Congress president Rahul Gandhi walked across the green-carpeted well of Lok Sabha to Modi and hugged him, a gesture which took the Treasury Bench members by surprise.

Gandhi's unexpected gesture, which quickly became a favoured video clip for television channels, came during a debate on no-confidence motion moved by the TDP against the Modi government. Gandhi's speech was frequently disrupted and prompting Speaker Sumitra Mahajan to adjourn the House for 15 minutes. When he resumed his speech, Gandhi continued his attack. Just before wrapping up, he strode over to Modi for the now-famous hug.

Modi initially looked nonplussed and did not stand up to hug him, but recovered quickly and called Gandhi back and patted him on the back. He also appeared to say a few words, which were inaudible. BJP MPs sitting behind Modi watched the brief interaction open-mouthed as the prime minister smiled at Gandhi as he walked back to his seat.

"This is what it means to be a Hindu," Gandhi said after coming back to his seat amid applause from his party members, including his mother Sonia Gandhi and other leaders present who heartily thumped their desks.

Sharply criticised for his reported remarks that "Congress is a Muslim party", Gandhi said, "Prime Minister Modi, BJP and ...have taught me what it means to be a Congress person, the meaning of being a real Indian, and what it means to be a real Hindu. For this, I thank them."

He also said his opponents may hate him, call him "Pappu" but he has no anger, hatred against the Prime Minister and the Bharatiya Janata Party.

This is likely the first time that an opposition leader has hugged the prime minister in the house, especially during a no-confidence motion. Akali Dal leader Harsimrat Kaur stood up and took objection to Gandhi's hug.

Speaker Mahajan also gently reminded Gandhi that this was the country's legislature and not a place for such gestures.

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Rahul Gandhi rakes up Rafale in Parliament, says PM Modi lied to nation

The mention of the Rafale deal triggered noisy protests from the ruling party Mps.

No-Confidence Motion : Congress President Rahul Gandhi on Friday said French President Emmanuel Macron had told him that there was no secrecy pact with India on the Rafale jet deal, alleging that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had lied to the nation about it.

"I personally met the French President and asked him if there was a secrecy pact with India. He told me that no such pact was signed between the two countries. He said he had no hesitation in saying this and that I can tell this to my country," Gandhi thundered in the Lok Sabha.

Gandhi said the price per plane during the UPA regime was Rs 520 crore (Rs 5.2 billion) but when Prime Minister Narendra Modi went to France and "with some magic" powers, the price per plane increased to Rs 1,600 crore (Rs 16 billion).

"Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is here. She said she would reveal the price. But after that, she said clearly she cannot because the French and Indian governments have a secrecy pact."

"The Prime Minister has lied to the country. Sitharaman under pressure from the Prime Minister has lied to the country. They must tell the nation. The Prime Minister and the Defence Minister must tell the nation."

The mention of the Rafale deal triggered noisy protests from the ruling party MPs.

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Govt faces no-trust vote; BJP confident of punching holes in Oppn's efforts

The BJP has also upped the ante in its criticism of the Congress, and has succeeded in catching it on the wrong foot.

Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan surprised the Opposition on Wednesday, the first day of the monsoon session of Parliament, when she not only accepted their notices for a no-confidence motion against the Narendra Modi government but also announced that the debate and voting on the motion would be held as early as Friday.

During the Budget session in March, Mahajan had pointed to disruptions in the House for not taking up a discussion on the notices of no-confidence motion, drawing criticism from opposition parties.

According to sources, this change in the government’s strategy of being amenable to facing a no-confidence motion came at the suggestion of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chief Amit Shah.

If the Opposition believes it will use the debate to embarrass the government on a host of issues, the BJP brass thinks the Opposition has offered it a gilded opportunity, that too close to elections to three key north Indian states, and the Lok Sabha polls not far away.

The PM has already started addressing public rallies across the country. The BJP has also upped the ante in its criticism of the Congress, and has succeeded in catching it on the wrong foot by describing it a party for Muslims. Modi’s reply to the debate in the Lok Sabha on Friday, with his speech set to be telecast live, is expected to mark the launch of his campaign for the 2019 polls.

Unless the PM does the unthinkable by quitting and recommending the dissolution of the House, which will also pave the way for much speculated early Lok Sabha elections, there is little danger to his government. In the Lok Sabha, the BJP continues to command a majority of its own in the House.

Therefore, the no-confidence motion will be less about number-crunching and more about optics. The Opposition will try to embarrass the government on a host of issues – agrarian distress, atrocities on dalits, special status for Andhra Pradesh, increase in deposits of Indians in Swiss banks, lynching incidents, foreign policy, and economy.

The BJP and government strategists are confident the debate and subsequent voting on the motion will expose Opposition disunity, while the PM will punch holes in the Opposition’s efforts at building a narrative against the government on issues such as farm distress. On Wednesday, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs increased the minimum price sugar mills pay to sugarcane growers by Rs 20 a quintal.

The news of the Speaker accepting the notices for a no-confidence motion rattled the market on Wednesday morning. The benchmark BSE Sensex closed nearly 150 points in the red after hitting a new all-time high in the morning.

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