Pakistan may try more attacks via proxy because this is the only way it can show India that it is not defeated, no matter how powerful India becomes.
In
the wake of the Pulwama
terrorist attack, India needs a discussion about what is in its
best interest — should it continue with its strategy of restraint
or change its behaviour — says C
Christine Fair, author of In Their Own Words: Understanding
Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army's Way of
War. Fair tells Bhaswar Kumar in an interview that terrorist attacks
like Pulwama will continue because this is the only way Pakistan can
show India that it is not defeated, no matter how powerful India
becomes. Edited excerpts:
Do
you think successive Indian governments’ strategic thinking has
been to bide time and avoid a large confrontation with Pakistan in
the interest of economic growth?
Indian
governments do not say so. Unlike the US, India does not have a
written National Security Strategy (NSS). Each American President has
to issue an NSS and this is the standard by which informed citizens
can monitor the budget and other applications of national powers. Few
countries have NSS documents. These are helpful documents, as they
effect a public debate and provide a road map for the elected
government.
So,
though one could not be certain, one could infer a general avoidance
of confrontation from the Indian government's behaviour. And, it
seems to be a constant since the post-Kargil time.
India
understands that if it can keep focusing on its economy, it can
continue increasing its defence allocation in real terms, with its
overall economy continuing to grow. That will allow India to outgrow
the Pakistan threat.
For
its part, Pakistan understands that it has an army that cannot win
the wars that it starts, and nuclear weapons that it cannot use, so
it must demonstrate that India's hegemonic goals are not
unchallenged. This means Pakistan must attack India through proxy
actors under its nuclear umbrella, just to demonstrate that India has
not defeated it or forced it into accepting the status quo.
In
other words, these terrorist attacks will continue because it is the
only way Pakistan can show India it does not stand defeated, no
matter how powerful India becomes.
As
for India, there is some value in its strategy: More people die of
roads accidents in a day than those from terror in a year. But, car
accidents cannot be a political issue; terror attacks can be.
