Strategies for Pulwama-like attacks trace back to ISI HQ: Christine Fair

Pakistan may try more attacks via proxy because this is the only way it can show India that it is not defeated, no matter how powerful India becomes.

In the wake of the Pulwama terrorist attack, India needs a discussion about what is in its best interest — should it continue with its strategy of restraint or change its behaviour — says C Christine Fair, author of In Their Own Words: Understanding Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army's Way of War. Fair tells Bhaswar Kumar in an interview that terrorist attacks like Pulwama will continue because this is the only way Pakistan can show India that it is not defeated, no matter how powerful India becomes. Edited excerpts:

Do you think successive Indian governments’ strategic thinking has been to bide time and avoid a large confrontation with Pakistan in the interest of economic growth?

Indian governments do not say so. Unlike the US, India does not have a written National Security Strategy (NSS). Each American President has to issue an NSS and this is the standard by which informed citizens can monitor the budget and other applications of national powers. Few countries have NSS documents. These are helpful documents, as they effect a public debate and provide a road map for the elected government.

So, though one could not be certain, one could infer a general avoidance of confrontation from the Indian government's behaviour. And, it seems to be a constant since the post-Kargil time.

India understands that if it can keep focusing on its economy, it can continue increasing its defence allocation in real terms, with its overall economy continuing to grow. That will allow India to outgrow the Pakistan threat.

For its part, Pakistan understands that it has an army that cannot win the wars that it starts, and nuclear weapons that it cannot use, so it must demonstrate that India's hegemonic goals are not unchallenged. This means Pakistan must attack India through proxy actors under its nuclear umbrella, just to demonstrate that India has not defeated it or forced it into accepting the status quo.

In other words, these terrorist attacks will continue because it is the only way Pakistan can show India it does not stand defeated, no matter how powerful India becomes.

As for India, there is some value in its strategy: More people die of roads accidents in a day than those from terror in a year. But, car accidents cannot be a political issue; terror attacks can be.

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