How will the Covid-19 pandemic impact Nifty companies' earnings in Q4FY20?

Margins in some sectors could improve due to soft raw material prices.

In Q4FY19 Nifty sales/EBITDA/PAT grew nearly 10 per cent/6 per cent/16 per cent year-on-year (YoY), respectively. Hence, the base as far as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) and profit after tax (PAT) is concerned, is high in Q4FY20. However in Q4FY19, profitability was driven largely by banks. Excluding banks, the PAT growth was slow at <2 per cent. The topline growth for Nifty companies in Q4FY19 was the slowest since Q3FY17.

COVID 19 would impact the performance of Nifty companies and overall corporate sector in Q4FY20 and Q1FY21. In Q4FY20, we could see a decline in both the topline and bottomline in Nifty companies on a YoY basis. Analysts will rework their FY21 estimates lower after Q4FY20 results and management commentary.

Will margins benefit from lower input costs?

Margins in some sectors could improve due to soft raw material prices. However, this advantage could be partly nullified by lower operating leverage, especially due to lockdown in the last 10-11 days of March.

Which sectors may be relatively better, which will be worst affected?

Telecom would report better performance due to tariff hike wef December and higher data usage in March, both of which could pull up the average revenue per users (ARPUs) of telecom companies. FMCG (essential categories) could do well, aided by lower input costs. Pharma companies could report better numbers but their Q1FY21 performance could get impacted due to lack of patient visits to doctors and delayed surgeries and also disruption in manufacturing. City Gas distribution companies could do well, especially those who are less dependent on CNG volumes.

Action against corrupt shouldn't be seen as crackdown on India Inc: PM Modi

The target to nearly double the size of the economy to $5 trn is just a phase and the targets are bigger and higher, says Modi.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday met top industrialists including Mukesh Ambani and Ratan Tata for an ‘’extensive’’ interaction and later followed it up with an address meant to revive the business sentiments, sending out a positive message ahead of the Union Budget.

During his meeting with India Inc bigwigs during the day, the PM focused on issues facing the industry and measures needed to boost the economy. Speaking at the centenary celebrations of Kirloskar Brothers in the evening, he encouraged businesses to invest without fear, stressing that action against a few corrupt entities should not be seen as government crackdown on the corporate sector. The government will walk shoulder to shoulder with the industry, he added, in a bid to revive the animal spirit.

Besides Tata and Ambani, the meeting with the PM was attended by Sunil Mittal, N Chandrasekaran, Anand Mahindra, Sajjan Jindal, Gautam Adani, Venu Srinivasan, A M Naik and Anil Agarwal, among others. An official in the Prime Minister’s Office said, “The PM had an extensive interaction with leading business stalwarts to discuss ways to improve growth and job creation’’.

The Modi government will present its next budget on February 1 and Indian companies are expecting a cut in income tax rates to revive consumer demand. Rationalisation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) is also high on India Inc expectations from the Budget. Although the government has already taken a series of steps to boost the sentiments, including a corporate tax rate cut, companies remain hesitant about fresh investments due to low consumer demand.

At the Kirloskar event, Modi asked the industry to shun pessimism and work towards the $5-trillion economy goal set by the government. “The target of $5-trillion economy is just a phase, our targets are bigger, higher,” he said. “At the beginning of the new year, I will again tell the Indian industry not to let disappointment affect you. Go ahead with new energy… whichever corner of the country you go to for your expansion, the Indian government will walk shoulder to shoulder with you,” the PM said.

Business Standard