Election 2019 may see the highest voter turnout, but will it benefit BJP?

Increased voter turnout seems to be concentrated in states where the voters have been at the forefront of the ongoing rural distress.

Business Standard : As the election 2019 season enters the final lap with polling left only for one phase of the seven scheduled, voter turnout this time around is likely to create a record. According to reports, the 2019 election is on track to achieve record voter turnout of around 67 per cent (55 – 56 million new voters relative to 2014 general elections), which would surpass the previous record of 66.4 per cent during the 2014 polls.

As per the data available with the Election Commission of India (ECI), voter turnout in the first four phases stood at 69.5 per cent (first phase), 69.44 per cent (second phase), 68.4 per cent (third phase) and 65.51 per cent (fourth phase).

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Constituency-wise comparison, as per a Nomura report suggests that in the first four phases (around 69 per cent of the seats), increased voter participation was concentrated in the key Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bastions of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Assam and Karnataka.

“The two outliers are Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, where voter turnout was high, but the BJP’s prospects have traditionally been weak,” the report says.

So, will the BJP/National Democratic Alliance (NDA) benefit from this higher voter turnout or will it succumb to anti-incumbency?

Both theoretical and empirical studies, according to Nomura, have struggled to find causality between voter turnout and election outcomes. In past Lok Sabha elections, there have been anti-incumbency outcomes during both high and low turnout elections.

“On the one hand, increased voter turnout may indicate a strong sense of dissatisfaction that has led to voters coalescing to boot out the incumbent, although studies have disputed this causality in previous elections,” wrote Sonal Varma, managing director and chief India economist at Nomura in a recent co-authored report with Aurodeep Nandi.

Adding: “On the other hand, high voter turnout could reflect active participation at the grass root level, with the party cadre coaxing citizens to vote. It may also be indicative of more structural, party-agnostic trends, wherein increased social media outreach, general political awareness and ease of voting contribute to participation of previously dormant registered voters.”

Grand alliance to take on BJP, RSS a sentiment of people: Rahul Gandhi

The opposition has been asking PM Modi to bring prices of petrol and diesel under the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

The grand alliance of opposition parties to take on the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not just the sentiment of politicians but also of the people, Congress President Rahul Gandhi said on Wednesday.


The Congress, he said, is trying to join together these voices and the work is going on.


"It is the sentiment of the people and not just political parties which are opposed to the BJP, to have a mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) that can take on the BJP, the RSS and Prime Minister Narendra Modi," he said at a press conference.


"Prime Minister Modi and the BJP are attacking the Constitution and institutions of the nation," he alleged, saying the question facing the people is how to stop this.


He said the opposition has been asking Prime Minister Modi to bring prices of petrol and diesel under the Goods and Services Tax (GST), but "he is not interested."


"There was an attack on Mumbai (through demonetisation). There are small industries, traders here... The leather industry and the cloth industry. They were attacked through the 'Gabbar Singh Tax'. The whole country is sad. Small businessmen are sad and we are fighting for them," he said.


He said during the UPA government's rule, the crude price was $130 a barrel that has now come down to $70 a barrel.


"However, the benefit has not been passed on to the common man. Where does this money go? In the pockets of 15 to 20 rich people," Gandhi alleged.


The 47-year-old Congress president is on a two-day visit to Maharashtra since yesterday.