Election 2019 may see the highest voter turnout, but will it benefit BJP?

Increased voter turnout seems to be concentrated in states where the voters have been at the forefront of the ongoing rural distress.

Business Standard : As the election 2019 season enters the final lap with polling left only for one phase of the seven scheduled, voter turnout this time around is likely to create a record. According to reports, the 2019 election is on track to achieve record voter turnout of around 67 per cent (55 – 56 million new voters relative to 2014 general elections), which would surpass the previous record of 66.4 per cent during the 2014 polls.

As per the data available with the Election Commission of India (ECI), voter turnout in the first four phases stood at 69.5 per cent (first phase), 69.44 per cent (second phase), 68.4 per cent (third phase) and 65.51 per cent (fourth phase).

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Constituency-wise comparison, as per a Nomura report suggests that in the first four phases (around 69 per cent of the seats), increased voter participation was concentrated in the key Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bastions of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Assam and Karnataka.

“The two outliers are Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, where voter turnout was high, but the BJP’s prospects have traditionally been weak,” the report says.

So, will the BJP/National Democratic Alliance (NDA) benefit from this higher voter turnout or will it succumb to anti-incumbency?

Both theoretical and empirical studies, according to Nomura, have struggled to find causality between voter turnout and election outcomes. In past Lok Sabha elections, there have been anti-incumbency outcomes during both high and low turnout elections.

“On the one hand, increased voter turnout may indicate a strong sense of dissatisfaction that has led to voters coalescing to boot out the incumbent, although studies have disputed this causality in previous elections,” wrote Sonal Varma, managing director and chief India economist at Nomura in a recent co-authored report with Aurodeep Nandi.

Adding: “On the other hand, high voter turnout could reflect active participation at the grass root level, with the party cadre coaxing citizens to vote. It may also be indicative of more structural, party-agnostic trends, wherein increased social media outreach, general political awareness and ease of voting contribute to participation of previously dormant registered voters.”

Economy to Balakot strike, Delhiites define what development means to them

East Delhi voter Nishat Anjum said she doesn't know much about which political party promised development.

Business Standard : From everyday issues of electricity and water to the Balakot strikes, there are different development strokes for different folk in the national capital, the definition of vikas' changing in accordance with needs and necessities but also political loyalties.

Across the city, spread across seven Lok Sabha constituencies, the concept of development is fluid, shifting form and shape to mean one thing for the ragpicker getting ready to go to Uttar Pradesh to vote for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and quite another for the affluent MNC employee.

The city, which votes on May 12, interprets the BJP government's mantra of Sabka saath, sabka vikas' in ways as diverse as its 19 million people.

For Srikishun, who works as a ragpicker in Delhi's walled city, life may be tough but he has saved money to travel to Gorakhpur in Uttar Pradesh in time to vote on May 19, the last round of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections.

The 28-year-old said there has been no development for the poor in the last five years but a lot of good has happened for the country. The country is getting famous but, on the other hand, unemployment is getting out of hand, he said with a wry smile.

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Srikishun knows actor-turned-MP Ravi Kishan is the BJP's candidate in Gorakhpur but that is of little consequence he said he is going all the way to vote for Modi.

Whatever he has done in Pakistan and all the other things have made me very happy, he said.

At the other end of the economic and political -- spectrum is Harpreet Singh, an MNC employee who lives in Delhi but works in Gurgaon.

In terms of infrastructure and schools, the Delhi government has done a swell job but the BJP in the Centre has been a massive failure, he said.

Be it development, economy or harmony, the BJP has disappointed us. Now everyone is screaming themselves hoarse in big debates over religion. But nobody knows anything about what's happening in the sectors of education and economy and they also have no willingness to know about it. In 2014, I was one of those who chanted Modi's name. But I've realised I was a fool at that time, 34-year-old Singh said.

Want to make some easy money? You can try your luck in Lok Sabha elections

Media organizations also hire companies to improve election coverage.

Lok Sabha Election 2019 : Businesses offering image makeovers, political slogan writers and experts in bullet-proofing vehicles are in high demand in India, and they have a short window to make some fast money before the country’s marathon voting season draws to a close.

The world’s biggest election, in which about 900 million citizens cast their votes in seven phases, has created opportunities for a range of businesses. It also means a significant rise in election spending, making it the costliest poll on earth.

Expenditure is set to rise 40 percent to $7 billion, according to Centre for Media Studies, a New Delhi-based think tank.

As politicians lock horns, Sunchit Sobti, director of Laggar Industries Ltd., and his 70 staff are working overtime to fulfill orders from clients to customize vehicles with armor-plating that will withstand gunfire and grenade attacks while providing a comfortable ride on the campaign trail.

“We are getting a lot of orders,” said Sobti, whose Punjab-based firm installs engine firewalls, fuel protection systems and run-flat-tires along with armoring in vehicles. “So far, we have armored 30 to 35 vehicles during this election and it’s a good number.’’

The transformation could cost anywhere between Rs 600,000 ($8,650) to Rs 4 million. “It takes two-to-three months to armor and customize a vehicle,’’ Sobti said.

Image Makers

Saints Art, a strategic consultancy firm, also has its hands full. It conducts demographic analysis and identifies target audiences and issues. The company creates profiles, handles politicians’ social media accounts, writes speeches and grooms candidates on the importance of making eye contact, said Sudhanshu Rai, founder and chief strategist at communication firm Saints Art. He would not reveal the firm’s clients.

“Every image is carefully crafted,” said Rai. “It depends on the objective the client has. If he wants to portray himself as an educated politician, all publicity material will be designed that way.’’

Media organizations also hire companies to improve election coverage. “We are advising them by analyzing everything on social media platforms -- how are Twitter hashtags trending, what is the public sentiment on a topic, how are different parts of the country reacting to a particular news,’’ said Amarpreet Kalkat, co-founder of Frrole, a company specializing in analyzing social media data.

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Elections 2019: Pollution becomes an issue with promises made in manifestos

Political parties pledge to reduce pollution in manifestos.

Promises to fight the world’s most toxic air have made it to the manifestos of major political parties for the first time in Indian elections. Major political parties such as the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, the opposition Indian National Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party have pledged to combat the crisis by taking measures ranging from setting deadlines, introducing new emission standards to promoting electric vehicles in a bid to fight toxic air.

That is a change from the 2014 elections when none of the party manifestos had any mention of clean air or pollution.

India, home to world’s top ten cities with the worst air quality, has been struggling to contain a deadly haze that killed an estimated 1.24 million citizens in 2017. In the past, governments have pledged millions of dollars and deployed extra teams to enforce existing environmental laws that include banning farmers from burning their fields. But the sheer scale of India’s toxic skies has made progress difficult.

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Air pollution on the agenda

The ruling BJP’s election manifesto promises to focus on 102 most polluted cities in the country. “We will reduce the level of pollution in each of the mission cities by at least 35 percent over the next five years,” it says, lauding itself for “effective steps” taken to reduce the level of pollution.

The Congress party manifesto calls air pollution a national public health emergency. It promises to strengthen the National Clean Air Program to tackle pollution. “All major sources of emission will be targeted, mitigated and reduced to acceptable levels,” it says.

The manifesto of the Aam Aadmi Party, which runs the government in the national capital of New Delhi, promises induction of electric buses and vacuum cleaning of roads, among other measures to address the pollution problem. In order to control smog in Delhi, the AAP implemented a program in 2015 to arrest vehicular emissions through traffic controls.

It is a ‘‘good sign’’ that political parties haven’t ignored air pollution, according to Anumita Roy Chowdhury, executive director of research at advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment. “The intent and the purpose have to get much clearer and sharper through strong political mandate for real action afterwards,” she said in a phone interview.

A recent study by The Lancet found 77 per cent of India’s 1.4 billion people exposed to air far dirtier than recommended limits. The poor are the worst hit by pollution, according to The Lancet.

The bigger political parties’ focus on pollution should eventually trickle down to manifestos and agendas of regional parties, according to Hem Himanshu Dholakia, senior research associate at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water. “Air pollution can be solved through action by both the center and states in terms of tackling local sources, for example, waste burning, which will require more action from local bodies,” Dholakia said.

The South Asian nation’s deadly air, especially in winter, is caused due to a combination of farm stubble burning, firecrackers, vehicular emissions and weather conditions.

How welfare politics in US has inspired ideas in Congress, BJP manifestos

The long slide in workers' bargaining power in the West, and a decline in their share of national income, is well documented. Something similar has occurred in India too.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Andrew Yang might not even be aware of it, but the controversial economic ideas espoused by the two young US politicians are being tested in a national election thousands of miles away.

In India’s polls, which start on Thursday and go on for more than five weeks, 900 million voters will decide on whether to give Prime Minister Narendra Modi a second term.

Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi’s Congress Party is trying to undercut Modi’s appeal by promising Rs 72,000 ($1,038) a year to each of the country’s 50 million poorest families. The plan has a distinct resemblance to the $1,000-a-month universal basic income that businessman Yang, seeking a 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, has proposed for every American adult.

New York Representative Ocasio-Cortez’s call for a jobs guarantee, the most ambitious part of her Green New Deal, also finds an echo in India, where unemployment and rural distress are central election issues. The Congress Party’s manifesto vows to fill 3.4 million public sector jobs and bolster a taxpayer-funded rural employment program to 150 days of assured work. That would be up from 100 days at present (although even 50 days of work has proved hard to deliver).

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party has criticized the opposition for promoting policies it says will raise the tax burden on the middle class. In its own manifesto, the BJP pledged to cut taxes for middle-income families while promising a more modest Rs 6,000 a year cash transfer to all farmers.

The Congress Party’s income supplement would cost 2 per cent of current GDP, once it ramps up. By then, sustained double-digit nominal GDP expansion will have lowered the program’s cost to no more than 1.2 per cent to 1.5 per cent of GDP, according to the party's head of data analytics. However, if the extra purchasing power pushes up prices more than output, then politicians will almost certainly come under pressure to lift that initial $1,000 a year payment.

Even assuming that the government recouped some of the cost by taxing increased sales of goods and services and higher corporate profit, it would have to curb other subsidies and expenditure. Borrowing more isn’t an option for India. Without a surge in household financial savings, which have ranged between 9 per cent and 11 per cent of GDP in recent years, having a public sector that eats up more than 8 per cent of GDP would place a very heavy burden on the private sector.

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