How states have planned for easing restrictions on inter-state travel

The Maharashtra government says that inter-state travel by road, air and trains from Maharashtra will remain prohibited in the latest phase of the lockdown until June 30.

After Centre allowed lifting of restrictions on inter-state movement of people, states like Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, which have reported the highest number of coronavirus cases, and those in the Northeast on Sunday decided to continue with the curbs even after the end of the fourth phase of the lockdown.

Several others like Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Telangana announced they are allowing inter-state movement as part of easing of restrictions under the 'Unlock-1'.

Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao on Saturday decided to extend the coronavirus-induced lockdown till June 30 in the containment zones, while in the areas outside containment zones, lockdown will be in force till June 7.

According to an official statement from the CMO, Rao held discussions with Chief Secretary Somesh Kumar, DGP Mahender Reddy and other senior officials in the backdrop of new guidelines issued by the Centre.

"It was decided to implement the relaxations in all the areas except in the Containment Zones as per the guidelines issued by the Centre. The CM has instructed the officials concerned to implement lockdown in the containment zones strictly," reads the statement.

The Karnataka government, while allowing inter-state movement, said separate orders will be issued by Health and Family Welfare Department for people coming to the state.

The UP government said there is no ban on interstate travel but left it to the district administrations of Ghaziabad and Noida to take a call on the movement of people from adjoining Delhi. The state has not restarted its inter-state bus service.

JP Morgan chief economist forecasts 'strong rebound' in Indian markets

The economic wounds will be "deeper than anything we've seen since World War Two", says chief economist at JP Morgan.

Global investment bank JP Morgan is forecasting a "very strong rebound" in Indian markets for the second half of the year while it remains "worried" about what it describes as deterioration in the country's public finances, social disruption and the limits of public financing in the long slog back from the coronavirus crisis.

"India is going to be going through a very difficult first half of the year. We have GDP down in the second quarter, 35 per cent annualised pace but we have a very strong rebound in the second half of the year, but one that still doesn't get you back to where you were," said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JP Morgan, news agency IANS reported.

Kasman leads a team of thirty economists worldwide who set the bank's economic and policy views.

Globally too, JP Morgan warned on Tuesday that whatever rebound happens in the second half of 2020 won't be strong enough to undo the damage absorbed during the first deadly blow from Covid-19.

The economic wounds will be "deeper than anything we've seen since World War Two", Kasman said. "At the same time, it's going to be very short lived."

Kasman thinks the Reserve Bank of India is "almost done but not completely done" with the easing of its key interest rate.

"We have a bottom in the policy rate forecast, 3.75 (per cent) very close to where we are now, Kasman said.

India's central bank has cut its key interest rate to 4 per cent to counter the economic blow from the coronavirus pandemic.

Income and job losses are going to have a "lasting effect" on consumer behaviour, Kasman said.

Firms that can survive with social distancing to spring back faster: Report

Sectors with complex value chains, particularly electronics & automotive products, would be most impacted.

The Covid-19 crisis will leave companies with a new normal and firms that can survive with social distancing, such as digital platforms, and online learning are likely to spring back to recovery and shall thrive soon, according to consulting firm GATS.
However, for industries which will struggle in reforming its workplace in terms of adapting to the new social distancing norms, the recovery will be harder and will take longer, according to Nalin Tayal, Managing Director, GATS.

Sectors with complex value chains, particularly electronics & automotive products, would be most impacted. Services would be most directly impacted through transport and travel restrictions. It is, however, expected that 2021 would see recovery, but it is dependent on the duration of the outbreak and effectiveness of policy responses not just in India, but across the world.

Though, manufacturing is being carried on for specific essential goods like medicines, PPEs, FMCG items like soap, sanitiser, textile like masks, heavy industries (mainly furnace based) like iron & steel but largely manufacturing seems to remain in red with automobiles, textiles & apparels & construction taking the major hit. As the manufacturing sector takes a hit, so the backward chain of mining and electricity, Tayal said.

As per the Power Ministry, electricity consumption has reduced by 20 per cent during the lockdown period mainly due to low business activity. But the comparative impact would be less as compared to the manufacturing sector.

MSMEs contribute almost 30 per cent to the GDP, so their performance is crucial for the growth of the economy. Already strained due to poor credit flow, lower demand, cash flow issues and diminished revenues due to lockdown will seriously impact the sector

Coronavirus: All you need to know about new relaxation rules in your state

Coronavirus updates: The death toll due to Covid-19 infection has jumped to 556 so far.

India has over 17,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, with Maharashtra alone recording nearly 4000 cases followed by Delhi, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu. The death toll due to Covid-19 infection has jumped to 556 so far.

The government had earlier announced a partial relaxation of lockdown from April 20 onwards. Let's take a look at states' position on lockdown relaxation rules.

Delhi

Delhi lockdown: The total number of Covid-19 cases crossed the 2,000-mark in the national capital on Sunday. CM Arvind Kejriwal said the government will not relax the Delhi lockdown for at least a week as the coronavirus spread appears to have gained pace. It accounts or 2 per cent of India's population but 12 per cent of the Covid-19 cases in the country.

According to a bulletin issued by the Delhi health department, 110 fresh cases were reported on Sunday, taking the tally in the national capital to 2,003. With two deaths, the fatalities jumped to 45. The AAP government in the city has started rapid testing in 78 Covid-19 containment zones and acquired 42,000 rapid-test kits.

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Chief Secretary Vijay Dev said the administration will review the situation on April 27. "In view of the present scenario, it appears to be necessary to maintain status quo in larger public interest," he said.

"We want to relax it, but if we give relaxations and there is a shortage of ICUs, ventilators, oxygen in hospitals and people lose their lives, we will not be able to forgive ourselves," Kejriwal said. "Had there been no lockdown, the situation here would have been similar to Italy and Spain," he warned.