Coronavirus impact: Credit growth likely to remain modest, says RBI

MPC report says better transmission of rates would remain priority.

With the Covid-19 pandemic posing huge risks for the Indian economy, the credit growth is likely to remain modest, reflecting weak demand and risk aversion, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its monetary policy (MPC) report.

“Better transmission of monetary policy impulses to the credit market would remain a priority,” the RBI said.

Credit offtake in the economy has been fairly slow with non-food credit growing at 6.1 per cent in FY20 (up to March 13), compared to 14.4 per cent growth in the same period last fiscal year.

According to RBI, the slowdown in credit growth was spread across all banks, especially those in the private sector. However, in the recent period (December 2019-March 2020), the public sector banks (PSBs) have seen a slight uptick in credit offtake.

The data shows that of the incremental credit extended by scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) during the year (March 15, 2019 to March 13, 2020), 62.6 per cent was provided by private sector banks, 36.6 per cent by PSBs, and 0.8 per cent by foreign banks.

The report says banks’ investment in commercial papers (CPs), bonds, debentures, and shares of public and private corporates, which is a part of non-SLR (statutory liquidity ratio) investment, has gone down in the second half of FY20 (up to March 13) than a year ago because of lower investments, resulting non-food credit growth being lower.

“With credit offtake remaining muted and non-SLR investments declining, banks increased their SLR portfolios. Banks held excess SLR of 8.4 per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) on February 28, as compared with 6.3 per cent of NDTL at the end of March 2019,” RBI said.

Banks target weaker borrowers as credit growth slips: Why it's a risky bet

Unsecured loans can only offer banks a temporary shelter during a downturn in collateralised credit.

Any financing that’s secured by collateral — steel mills, textile factories, power plants, roads or land — is in trouble in India. A multiyear investment slowdown has decimated credit quality. Now, the problem is spreading. The near-recession in the consumer economy means unsecured lending could be the next domino to fall.

With business collateral losing its sheen, India’s top three private-sector banks have been expanding their credit card and personal loan business at 30 per cent-plus rates, double the pace of growth in their corporate loan book. They can’t keep up for long. If they try, they would only be storing trouble for the future.

Why? For one thing, the quality of the next borrower is suspect. About 20 per cent of all active credit-card customers in India are in the highest category of creditworthiness, according to TransUnion Cibil, which assigns scores. But among those who signed up last year, only 3 per cent belonged to this least risky group, an analysis by Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. shows. The next person to apply for and get a credit card in India is more likely to be subprime.

A surge in lower-quality customers would raise credit costs. It will be a double whammy when banks have to provide for bad loans after paying for costlier term deposits. And that’s linked to the consumption slowdown, because of what Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani calls the sheer “exhaustion of household savings in the large metropolitan cities.”

This is a true showstopper. Unlike their state-run cousins, HDFC Bank Ltd., ICICI Bank Ltd. and Axis Bank Ltd. are more city-centered lenders. Right up to March 2016, the trio enjoyed steady annual savings deposit growth in the range of 17 per cent-18 per cent. 

Then, in November that year, came the draconian Indian currency note ban. Their deposits swelled as people returned the 86 per cent of the currency that was no longer legal tender.

But the top three banks’ savings deposit growth has since slipped to 10 per cent, while for all lenders the figure has plunged to as low as 6 per cent in metropolitan areas. Urban Indian consumers have reached into their nest eggs to battle sudden job losses, poor pay increases and a $15 billion wealth shock from apartments that they’ve paid for but were never built because developers ran out of money.

Business Standard