Modi, Abe have task cut out in Russia: Prying Putin away from China

Apart from better bilateral ties at the expense of China, Modi will probably seek from Putin support for his new Kashmir policy.

Business Standard : Alarmed by Russia’s growing partnership with China, Beijing’s Asian neighbors are increasingly looking for ways to court Moscow away.

That is exactly what Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe aim to do at the annual Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok this week. Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be notably absent from the event, Russian President Vladimir Putin ’s showcase for investment opportunities in his country’s Far East.

“Both of them are interested in seeing how they can come between Putin and Xi,” said Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank. “They each have their own agenda, but both share an interest in prying Moscow away from Beijing.”

Russia and China have touted their strengthening relationship; trade has increased and the two plan to sign a new military agreement. But the depth of the relationship is untested, and China’s investments in Russia have fallen far short of the expectations built up when Moscow announced its pivot to the East in 2014, as relations with the West worsened. 

That has left other regional powers wondering how to exploit potential weaknesses in their relationship.

This year’s forum is the fifth. As Russia has failed to attract big business investments to its generally underdeveloped Far East, the event has become a forum for Russia’s political elite, showcasing top-down government development plans.

Apart from better bilateral ties at the expense of China, Modi will probably seek from Putin support for his new Kashmir policy, which seeks to incorporate the region—also claimed by Pakistan—into India’s federal territory. China has spoken out against Modi’s move, while Moscow has withheld any criticism.

But the prime minister is likely just as interested in new nuclear projects and continuing arms deals—as well as opportunities in Russia’s Far East. In the run-up to the forum, officials and investors from five Indian states have been led around the Far East to look at possibilities, including in diamond mining to feed India’s huge market.

India’s ties to Russia—and before that the Soviet Union—have diminished as New Delhi’s relationship with the US has improved over the past decade. But Modi strengthened them earlier this year with a $5.4 billion deal to buy Russia’s S-400 air-defense system.

Russia has said it is ready to make all necessary efforts to get the deal done by 2023 as scheduled despite severe objections from Washington.

India's BPCL buys US crude set to arrive in China after new tariffs kick in

Six tankers carrying about 12 million barrels of US crude were on the way to China at the time of the announcement of new tariffs.

An Indian state-owned refiner has swooped in to buy American oil that was en route to China but due to arrive after new tariffs kicked in.

Bharat Petroleum bought one or two cargoes of US crude that were recently diverted from its original destination of China, Refineries Director R Ramachandran said in an interview. He didn’t identify the seller, how big the shipments were, or the name of the ships. It’s possible BPCL could buy more American oil that was headed to China, he said.

Beijing announced it would impose the 5 per cent levies -- the first ever Chinese tariffs on US oil -- on Aug 23 and they took effect Sept 1. Six tankers carrying about 12 million barrels of US crude were on the way to China at the time of the announcement. At least one of those vessels arrived before the deadline, while another ship may have offloaded its cargo at a port near Qingdao before the tariffs took effect.

Unipec -- the trading arm of China’s state-owned oil giant Sinopec -- offered US crude that couldn’t arrive in the Asian country before Sept. 1 in late August. At least three potential Asian buyers received offers from Unipec, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Indian refiners have increased their purchases of American oil this year as supplies from Iran and Venezuela were hit by White House sanctions. The Asian nation bought an average of 287,000 barrels of US crude a month in this year through May, compared with a monthly average of 131,000 barrels in 2018, according to Energy Information Administration data.

China was the biggest foreign buyer of American crude as recently as the middle of last year but imports were subsequently slashed as the trade dispute worsened. Purchases picked up again this year, reaching 1.5 million tons in July, data from the General Administration of Customs show.

Ramachandran also said BPCL is looking to process US West Texas Intermediate Light and Louisiana Light Sweet crude, two American grades that the Indian refiner has yet to purchase.

Business Standard

American fashion brands push for India-US FTA to streamline trade issues

After repeated overtures from Trump administration, India has told the US that it was unwilling to discuss a full FTA.

Major American apparel brands such as Ralph Lauren, Calvin Klein, Van Heusen, and Carters have made a case for a free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the US, arguing it will attract investments and streamline trade-related issues.

“An FTA with the US is a major component of bilateral business relations that is missing now,” Tara Joseph, president of the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Hong Kong, said.

AmCham Hong Kong, in partnership with the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), has brought a delegation of 15 top US apparel companies to India for exploring mega investment opportunities. It has also asked the government to reduce the customs duty on synthetic fabric imports.

The American industry body is the latest to bat for an FTA with the US. Earlier this year, both the US-India Business Council and the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum -- major business advocacy groups -- reiterated their support for a bilateral trade deal.

This view has found support among Indian industry as well. “We need FTAs with major buying countries like the US. In the current business environment, for a variety of reasons, this may be a good time to sign a bilateral FTA with the US," said Gautam Nair, chairman of the CII Textiles Task Force on Sourcing and Investments.

According to AmCham, the US-China trade war has made sourcing from China costly and has opened a window for investments into India, and that businesses are keen to test whether manufacturing can start.

During the ongoing three-day visit, the companies are testing the Indian market and having talks with Indian firms for greater sourcing operations, as well as the government, for investments of “hundreds of millions of dollars”, Joseph said.

Business Standard

Cyclical or structural? Decoding the nature of India's economic slowdown

A slowdown in consumption demand, decline in manufacturing, inability of the IBC to resolve cases in a time-bound manner and rising global trade tension is impacting India, analysts say.

Business Standard : India’s real or inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 5 per cent in the June 2019 quarter of financial year 2019-20 (Q1FY20), the slowest growth in six years (25 quarters). In nominal terms, the growth stood at 7.99 per cent, lowest since December 2002.

With this, fears of the slowdown being a more structural one than a cyclical one have surfaced.

What is a cyclical slowdown?

A cyclical slowdown is a period of lean economic activity that occurs at regular intervals. Such slowdowns last over the short-to-medium term, and are based on the changes in the business cycle.

Generally, interim fiscal and monetary measures, temporary recapitalisation of credit markets, and need-based regulatory changes are required to revive the economy.

What is a structural slowdown?

A structural slowdown, on the other hand, is a more deep-rooted phenomenon that occurs due to a one-off shift from an existing paradigm. The changes, which last over a long-term, are driven by disruptive technologies, changing demographics, and/or change in consumer behaviour.

Dissecting India’s slowdown

A slowdown in consumption demand, decline in manufacturing, inability of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) to resolve cases in a time-bound manner, and rising global trade tension and its adverse impact on exports are some of the factors affecting India’s growth, analysts say.

Consumption:

“Private consumption, which contributes nearly 55-60 per cent, to India’s GDP has been slowing down. While the reduced income growth of households has reduced urban consumption, drought/near-drought conditions in three of the past five years coupled with collapse of food prices has taken a heavy toll on rural consumption,” said analysts at India Ratings and Research, Indian arm for Fitch Group. The private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) has slumped to 3.1 per cent in Q1FY20, the weakest level since Q3FY15.

Isro conducts Chandrayaan-2 Moon lander's deorbit manoeuvre successfully

Deorbiting manoeuvres involve the firing of the spacecraft's engines to slow down its pace and bring it closer to the Moon's surface.

Business Standard : After successfully separating India's first Moon lander, Vikram, on Monday, the Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) conducted its first deorbit manoeuvre successfully on Tuesday. The manoeuvre began at 0850 hours and had a duration of 4 seconds.

Isro officials said that after Tuesday's deorbit manoeuvre, the lander had achieved a 109 x 120 km orbit around the Moon.

One more deorbit manoeuvre will be conducted on Wednesday and the orbit that the lander will achieve after this will be 39 X 110 km. The effort is to soft-land the lander in the South polar region of the Moon between two craters -- Manzinus C and Simpelius N -- on September 7, 2019.

Deorbiting manoeuvres involve the firing of the spacecraft's engines to slow down its pace and bring it closer to the Moon's surface.

Earlier, Isro Chairman K Sivan said that using deorbiting manoeuvres, the space agency would rotate the lander to the opposite side and burn all the five engines for a short while to reduce the distance between the lander and the Moon's surface, before rotating it back to the previous position. In the second deorbiting manoeuvre, the agency will once again rotate the lander to the opposite side and conduct a small burn of the engines to further bring down the orbit.

The lander will then make a powered descent to the Moon's surface in the unexplored south pole on September 7.

Sivan said that the powered descent will be carried out in a 15-minute window between 0130 hours and 0230 hours IST on September 7, through which Vikram will touch down on the surface of the Moon.

"The manoeuvre was considered critical because it marks an important phase of the lunar landing process of Chandrayaan-2 and even a minute hurdle during this manoeuvre could have an impact on the whole mission," said Sivan.

After Vikram's touchdown, the rover, Pragyan, will roll down from the former to carry out the research for which it was designed. Even after the separation of Vikram, the orbiter will continue to fly around the Moon.

Apple to Samsung: 75 new smartphone models to kick off festive season sales

The euphoria is clearly visible in activities of the smartphone majors.

Amid a potential slowdown, the country’s smartphone makers are gearing up for bumper sales ahead of the festival season. To draw consumers, at least 75 new smartphone models have been lined up and that may add momentum to the already growing sector.

Initial estimates — based on trends of the past two months — suggest that during the July-September quarter smartphone shipments may touch an all-time high. While last year, during the corresponding quarter, nearly 42.6 million units were shipped in, this year the number may surpass 45 million, analysts estimate.

Prabhu Ram, head of industry intelligence group, CyberMedia Research, says smartphone shipments will grow 8-10 per cent year-on-year during the quarter. “Smartphone brands have lined up many exiting launches, backed by attractive offers. Online shopping festivals will further pique customers’ interest,” he said.

The euphoria is clearly visible in activities of the smartphone majors. Market leader Xiaomi is planning to launch Redmi Note 8 and 8 Pro, extension of its flagship Note series. Second-largest player Samsung has lined up launches under its current online-only series M that directly competes with Xiaomi. The Korean giant will also launch new models under its yearly flagship Galaxy S series in September.

Samsung’s rival in the super premium segment — Apple — is not behind. New iPhone models are expected to be unveiled in the country by October — days ahead of Diwali. OnePlus, another heavyweight in the premium category that frequently beats Apple and Samsung in their own turf, is launching OnePlus 7T — replacing the bestselling OnePlus 6T this month.

Vivo, Oppo, and Realme, the third-, fourth- and fifth-largest players currently, have their own flagships lined up. Vivo Z2 Pro, Z1X Pro, and Z5, Realme XT, and Oppo Reno 2 series are in the pipeline. Other leading brands like Nokia, Huawei, and Honor are coming out with Nokia 6.2, 7.2, and 8.2, Huawei Mate 30 series, and Honor 9X series, respectively, during the festival season.

Lenovo is relaunching its mother brand after it withdrew Lenovo smartphones from the market over a year ago. The Chinese major is planning to lap up its dual-brand strategy this season — with Lenovo and Motorola — targeting different sets of consumers.

Business Standard

4 killed in fire at ONGC plant in Navi Mumbai; rescue operation underway

The blaze erupted around 7 am in the gas processing plant of the ONGC located in Uran area of neighbouring Navi Mumbai.

Four people were killed and three others injured after a fire broke out at the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation's (ONGC) plant in Navi Mumbai township of Maharashtra on Tuesday, police said.

The ONGC said there was no impact on oil processing and that the gas was diverted to its Hazira plant in Surat district of Gujarat.

The blaze erupted around 7 am in a processing plant of the ONGC located in Uran area of neighbouring Navi Mumbai, the police said.

"Four people have been killed and three others injured in the mishap," a senior police official said.

"Fire broke out in storm water drainage in Uran Plant early morning successfully doused within two hours by fire fighting team. #ONGCs robust crisis mitigation preparedness helped put off this major fire in a very short time," the ONGC said in a tweet.

Earlier, in another tweet, it said, "A fire broke out in storm water drainage early morning 2day in Uran oil & gas processing plant.ONGC fire services & crisis management team immediately pressed in2 action. Fire is being contained. No impact on Oil processing.Gas diverted to Hazira Plant. Situation is being assessed.

Nearly 22 fire brigade tenders, including that of the ONGC, Navi Mumbai civic body and other agencies, were at the spot, the police official said.

The injured persons were admitted to nearby hospitals for treatment, he said.

The cause of the fire was yet to be ascertained, he added.

Business Standard