Oil bounces from multi-year lows as hopes of OPEC+ cut offset virus impact

US West Texas Intermediate crude hit a 14-month low of $43.32 a barrel, before recovering to $45.23, up 47 cents, or 1.1%

Oil prices pared losses after earlier hitting multi-year lows on Monday as hopes that a bigger than expected production cut from OPEC and stimulus from central banks could offset economic gloom from the coronavirus outbreak.

Brent crude was at $50.32 a barrel, up 65 cents, or 1.3%, by 0105 GMT, after earlier dropping to $48.40, the lowest since July 2017.

US West Texas Intermediate crude hit a 14-month low of $43.32 a barrel, before recovering to $45.23, up 47 cents, or 1.1%.

Flight cancellations and travel bans by countries worldwide sparked fears about the global economy, leading to the biggest weekly stock market rout since the 2008 financial crisis last week. China's factory activity also shrunk at the fastest pace ever in February, underscoring the colossal damage from the coronavirus outbreak on the world's second-largest economy.

"On the one hand, it's pretty negative on worldwide crude oil and product demand," said Lachlan Shaw, head of commodity research at the National Australia Bank.

On the other hand, there was news Saudi Arabia was pushing for a million barrels per day cut to be agreed this week, while central banks globally were increasingly signalling an appetite to intervene and support markets by cutting interest rates, he said.

"So it's a balance and it's going to be pretty volatile."

Several key members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are mulling an additional production cut of 1 million barrels per day, more than the 600,000 bpd proposed last month, on growing fears that the virus outbreak will hit oil demand badly.

OPEC and its allies including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, have already been curbing oil output by 1.7 million bpd under a deal that runs to the end of March.

"Current prices do not work for most of the OPEC+ group as they stand and Russia is not as price agnostic as it endeavours to seem," said Helima Croft global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

"We think Saudi Arabia will likely be able to rally the rest of the producers for a cut of at least 1+ million bpd."

Crude oil prices fall as coronavirus death toll climbs, US inventories grow

WHO's Emergency Committee is set for another meeting later on Thursday to reconsider whether the rapid spread of the virus should now be called a global emergency.

Market News : Oil prices fell on Thursday as the death toll from the new virus in China climbed to 170 and more airlines cancelled flights to the country's major cities, while rising US crude inventories added to the negative tone.

Brent was down 35 cents, or 0.6 per cent, at $59.46 a barrel by 7:55 am, having risen 0.5 per cent on Wednesday. US crude was down 30 cents, or 0.6 per cent, at $53.03 a barrel, after dropping 0.3 per cent in the previous session.

Still, oil prices have steadied in recent days after a rout that pushed them to three-month lows and the market is trying to assess the damage to economic growth and demand for crude and its products.

"There isn't a compelling case crude needs to go lower until we know more about how bad the demand destruction from the coronavirus epidemic is going to be," said Stratfor oil analyst, Greg Priddy.

A second flight of Japanese evacuees from Wuhan, China, where the outbreak started, landed in Japan on Thursday, with nine showing symptoms of fever or coughing, broadcaster NHK reported. Infections in China have passed 7,700.

The World Health Organisation's Emergency Committee is set for another meeting later on Thursday to reconsider whether the rapid spread of the virus should now be called a global emergency.

Airlines around the world are suspending or reducing direct flights to major cities in China as travel warnings are issued by governments and passenger numbers drop.

Bigger-than-expected gains in US crude oil inventories last week also meant "oil prices were dealt the cruellest hand of them all," said Stephen Innes, chief market strategist at AxiCorp.

Crude stocks rose by more than seven times market expectations, gaining 3.5 million barrels in the week to Jan. 24, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

Gasoline stocks rose to a record high, increasing for a 12th consecutive week to 261.1 million barrels, the EIA said.

Asian shares slump; gold, oil soar after Iran missile strike on US forces

US crude soared 4.42% to $65.47 a barrel.

Asian shares and US treasury yields plunged on Wednesday, while gold and oil shot higher after Iran fired rockets at an Iraqi airbase that hosts US military forces, stoking fears of further sharp escalations in a developing conflict.

Iran's missile attacks on the Ain Al-Asad air base and another in Erbil, Iraq, early Wednesday came hours after the funeral of an Iranian commander whose killing in a US drone strike has raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East.

In morning trade, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 2.5% and Australian shares fell 1%.

US crude soared 4.42% to $65.47 a barrel.

"We've moved on from how Iran will respond to now anticipating the U.S. 52-pronged response as the U.S. military forces in the region are in a heightened state of alert while likely preparing for war," said Stephen Innes, strategist at AxiTrader. "It's not going to be pretty today"

The sharp sell-off in risk assets was accompanied by steep drops in U.S. Treasury yields as investors flocked to safety. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes yielded 1.7188%, down more than 10 basis points from a U.S. close of 1.825% on Tuesday.

The two-year yield dropped to 1.4581% compared with a U.S. close of 1.546%. The dollar also plunged against the yen, with the Japanese currency touching its strongest point against the greenback since October. The U.S. currency was last down 0.69% against the yen at 107.67 .

The euro gained 0.1% on the day to $1.1161

The flight to safety and a falling dollar supported gold, which rocked 1.91% higher on the spot market to $1,603.93 per ounce.

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India's BPCL buys US crude set to arrive in China after new tariffs kick in

Six tankers carrying about 12 million barrels of US crude were on the way to China at the time of the announcement of new tariffs.

An Indian state-owned refiner has swooped in to buy American oil that was en route to China but due to arrive after new tariffs kicked in.

Bharat Petroleum bought one or two cargoes of US crude that were recently diverted from its original destination of China, Refineries Director R Ramachandran said in an interview. He didn’t identify the seller, how big the shipments were, or the name of the ships. It’s possible BPCL could buy more American oil that was headed to China, he said.

Beijing announced it would impose the 5 per cent levies -- the first ever Chinese tariffs on US oil -- on Aug 23 and they took effect Sept 1. Six tankers carrying about 12 million barrels of US crude were on the way to China at the time of the announcement. At least one of those vessels arrived before the deadline, while another ship may have offloaded its cargo at a port near Qingdao before the tariffs took effect.

Unipec -- the trading arm of China’s state-owned oil giant Sinopec -- offered US crude that couldn’t arrive in the Asian country before Sept. 1 in late August. At least three potential Asian buyers received offers from Unipec, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Indian refiners have increased their purchases of American oil this year as supplies from Iran and Venezuela were hit by White House sanctions. The Asian nation bought an average of 287,000 barrels of US crude a month in this year through May, compared with a monthly average of 131,000 barrels in 2018, according to Energy Information Administration data.

China was the biggest foreign buyer of American crude as recently as the middle of last year but imports were subsequently slashed as the trade dispute worsened. Purchases picked up again this year, reaching 1.5 million tons in July, data from the General Administration of Customs show.

Ramachandran also said BPCL is looking to process US West Texas Intermediate Light and Louisiana Light Sweet crude, two American grades that the Indian refiner has yet to purchase.

Business Standard

India to continue growing fastest; be second-largest economy by 2030: PM

He also said that India has made rapid strides in achieving COP21 targets and are on way to achieve those.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi exuded confidence on Monday that India would continue to be the fastest-growing large economy, and could be the second-largest economy in the world by 2030.

"Leading agencies such as IMF and World Bank project the same trend to continue in the coming years. In an uncertain global economic environment, India has shown tremendous resilience as an anchor of the world economy," Modi said addressing inaugural address of Petrotech 2019 here.

Modi said, currently, India is fastest-growing large economy in the world... and it "recently became the sixth-largest economy in the world. According to a recent report, by 2030 India could be the second-largest world economy."

As per a Standard Chartered report, India is likely to pip the United States to become the world's second-largest economy by 2030. China will on the top spot surpassing US, which will be at the third place, the report said.

On the roller coaster movement of crude oil and pricing of petroleum, he said, "We need to move to responsible pricing which balances interests of both producers and consumers. We also need to move toward transparent and flexible market for both oil and gas, only then we can serve energy needs of humanity in optimal manner."

He also said that India has made rapid strides in achieving COP21 targets and are on way to achieve those.

He said, "India has the fourth-largest refining capacity in the world. This will further grow up by about 200 million metric tonnes by 2030. Our national bio fuel policy has enacted last year... research on second and third generation bio fuel is being promoted. 12-second generation bio refineries are being set up in 11 states."

Talking about energy policy of India he said, "We have adopted an integrated approach in energy planning. During the last Petrotech Conference in 2016, I mentioned four pillars for India's future - energy access, efficiency, sustainability and security."

He was of the view that energy justice is also key objective for him and a top priority for India.

"Toward this end, we have developed and implemented many policies. The results of these efforts are now evident. Electricity has reached all our rural areas. This year, we aim to achieve 100 per cent electrification of households in India through a targeted programme called Saubhagya. As we raise production, we also aim to reduce losses in transmission and distribution," he added.

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