US entered recession in February, ending record-long expansion: Economists

The economists said employment peaked in February and fell sharply afterward, marking the beginning of the downturn.

The US economy entered a recession in February, a group of economists declared Monday, ending the longest expansion on record.

The economists said employment peaked in February and fell sharply afterward, marking the beginning of the downturn.

The economists make up a committee within the National Bureau of Economic Research, a trade group that determines when recessions begin and end.

It defines a recession as a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months.

The committee noted, though, that in this case, the depth of the downturn since February had led it to determine that a recession had begun.

The unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions, the NBER panel said.

The unemployment rate is officially 13.3 per cent, down from 14.7 per cent in April. Both figures are higher than in any other downturn since World War II.

A broader measure of underemployment that includes some of the unemployed who have given up looking and those who have been reduced to part-time status is 21.2 per cent.

At 27.4, India's manufacturing activity falls to record low in April: PMI

PMI manufacturing plunged to 27.4 last month from March's 51.8, by far its lowest since the survey began in March 2005.

India's manufacturing activity contracted at its sharpest pace on record in April as a lockdown to combat the rapid spread of the coronavirus led to a slump in demand and massive supply chain disruptions, a private sector survey showed on Monday.

Asia's third-largest economy is taking a huge hit from the ongoing nationwide lockdown, which started on March 25, and its gross domestic product is expected to shrink for the first time since the mid-1990s this quarter, a Reuters poll showed last month.

That was despite the government announcing a spending package of Rs 1.7 trillion ($22.4 billion) and a significant easing in monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India.

The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index , compiled by IHS Markit, plunged to 27.4 last month from March's 51.8, by far its lowest since the survey began in March 2005 and its first time below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction in nearly three years.

"After making it through March relatively unscathed, the Indian manufacturing sector felt the full force of the coronavirus pandemic in April," noted Eliot Kerr, economist at IHS Markit.

"Record contractions in output, new orders and employment pointed to a severe deterioration in demand conditions." With new orders and output shrinking at the steepest pace since at least early 2005 factories cut jobs at the fastest rate in the survey's history, signaling a high chance of recession.

And indicating major supply-side disruptions, a sub-index tracking supplier's delivery times declined to a level not seen since the survey began.

Covid-19: Recession for world economy; India, China likely exceptions: UN

The report did not give a detailed explanation as to why and how India and China will be the exceptions as the world faces a recession and loss in global income that will impact developing countries.

The world economy will go into recession this year with a predicted loss of trillions of dollars of global income due to the coronavirus pandemic, spelling serious trouble for developing countries with the likely exception of India and China, according to a latest UN trade report.

With two-thirds of the world's population living in developing countries facing unprecedented economic damage from the COVID-19 crisis, the UN is calling for a $2.5 trillion rescue package for these nations.

According to the new analysis from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the UN trade and development body titled 'The COVID-19 Shock to Developing Countries: Towards a 'whatever it takes' programme for the two-thirds of the world's population being left behind', commodity-rich exporting countries will face a $2 trillion to $3 trillion drop in investments from overseas in the next two years.

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The UNCTAD said that in recent days, advanced economies and China have put together massive government packages which, according to the Group of 20 leading economies (G20), will extend a $5 trillion lifeline to their economies.

"This represents an unprecedented response to an unprecedented crisis, which will attenuate the extent of the shock physically, economically and psychologically," it said.

It added that while the full details of these stimulus packages are yet to be unpacked, an initial assessment by the UNCTAD estimates that they will translate to a $1 trillion to $2 trillion injection of demand into the major G20 economies and a two percentage point turnaround in global output.

"Even so, the world economy will go into recession this year with a predicted loss of global income in trillions of dollars. This will spell serious trouble for developing countries, with the likely exception of China and the possible exception of India," the UNCTAD said.