Why a normal monsoon forecast is not a guarantee of economic outcomes

A normal monsoon forecast however does not say anything on the spread or the arrival, progress and departure of the rainfall which all have a bearing on crop outcomes.

Agriculture, particularly the kharif season, has always been a matter of interest as it drives farmers’ income. Farm distress was exacerbated in 2018 due to high supplies which led to prices coming down and made it a major issue. But the starting point is always the monsoon and hence a forecast even before the season starts is important. While the IMD forecast was held sacrosanct in the past, the emergence of a private forecast by Skymet, often before the official one has grabbed attention. This time the Skymet has projected the rains to be 93% of LPA while IMD has bettered it with 96%. While the former has flagged the possibility of El Niño developing, the IMD has brushed this aside which sends positive signals to the community.

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A normal monsoon is a very broad term which says that at the aggregate level the rains will be okay. This has not always been positively correlated with the kharif output in the past as often there are interspatial variations which affect prospects of specific crops. These crops are those which have limited access to irrigation and hence become vulnerable. This is also a reason as to why food inflation in particular is not evenly spread across product heads and varies depending on the supply which is affected by the rainfall. In particular pulses and horticulture are susceptible to monsoon swings.

But the announcement of a ‘more’ normal monsoon (96% as against 93%), which is what the IMD is talking about, is positive news for the markets as it signals the following:

First, farm output will be normal meaning that in general growth will be on track.

ALSO READ: IMD predicts normal and well distributed monsoon, raising hopes for farming

Second, inflation, in particular food inflation will be under control and low which is always a concern when monsoons are spoken of.

Third, if inflation is under control and output normal there is a good chance of farm income improving which will lead to steady demand for industrial goods during the busy season which coincides with the festivals. Therefore it is good for the consumer goods industry as well as automobile sector. It may be recollected that this story did not play out last year when a good harvest actually led to prices crashing and farmers receiving lower income.

Fourth, low food inflation will be beneficial for overall inflation too. Food inflation has been the factor driving headline inflation towards a low level in 2018-19 and this can be maintained in case kharif prices are under control. Fifth, moderate CPI inflation will make a strong case for further rate cuts by the MPC.

Indian monsoon led to global warming 130,000 years ago that ended ice age

The Indian summer monsoon pulled heat and moisture northwards, driving glacial melting in the northern hemisphere and helping tropical wetlands expand their range.

The past may be a surprisingly useful guide for predicting responses to future climate change. This is especially important for places where extreme weather has been the norm for a long time, such as the Indian subcontinent. Being able to reliably predict summer monsoon rainfall is critical to plan for the devastating impact it can have on the 1.7 billion people who live in the region.

The onset of India’s summer monsoon is linked to heat differences between the warmer land and cooler ocean, which causes a shift in prevailing wind direction. Winds blow over the Indian Ocean, picking up moisture, which falls as rain over the subcontinent from June to September.

Keep Reading : Business Standard

The monsoon season can bring drought and food shortages or severe flooding, depending on how much rain falls and in what duration. Understanding how the monsoon responded to an abrupt climate transition in the past can therefore help scientists better understand its behaviour in the future.

When we researched this weather system’s ancient past, we found it was highly sensitive to climate warming 130,000 years ago. Our new study published in Nature Geoscience showed that the Indian summer monsoon pulled heat and moisture into the northern hemisphere when Earth was entering a warmer climate around 130,000 years ago. This caused tropical wetlands to expand northwards – habitats that act as sources of methane, a greenhouse gas. This amplified global warming further and helped end the ice age.

The rate at which today’s climate is changing is unprecedented in the geological record, but our study shows how sensitive the Indian summer monsoon was during a global transition into warming in the past and may still be.

The monsoon rains of yesteryear

Over the last one million years, the climate fluctuated between a cold glacial – known as an ice age – and a warm interglacial as the Earth’s position relative to the sun wobbled in its orbit. The last transition from an ice age into the warm climate of the present interglacial – known as the Holocene – occurred around 18,000 years ago. This period of Earth’s history is relatively well understood, but how Earth system processes responded to these climate changes deeper in time is still something of a mystery.

A recent expedition to drill deep into the ocean floor of the Bay of Bengal gave an opportunity to reconstruct past Indian monsoon behaviour over hundreds of years before the last ice age.

Our study used these deep sea sediments from the northern Bay of Bengal to capture a direct signal of the Indian summer monsoon from 140,000 to 128,000 years ago, hidden in the fossilised shells of tiny microscopic creatures called foraminifera.

Despite a 'normal' monsoon, possibility of drought looms over 251 districts

In 11 states and UTs, including Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, 50% or more districts experienced deficient to "large deficient" rainfall, as per an analysis.

The possibility of a drought looms over 251 districts of India, mainly in the east, northeast and south, according to an IndiaSpend analysis of rainfall data for 2018.

Karnataka declared 23 out of its total 30 districts drought-hit due to deficient rainfall, and Andhra Pradesh announced that 274 blocks in six districts were ‘severe drought hit’. With Jaisalmer and Barmer districts getting less than 60% of normal rains, western Rajasthan is experiencing a dry spell after a decade. The Marathwada and Vidarbha regions of Maharashtra are faced with a drought-like situation.

With three days left for September 30, 2018, the official departure of the ongoing southwest monsoon, this year could likely be a “normal” monsoon year. The cumulative rainfall over the country over 117 days since the beginning of the monsoon on June 1, 2018, was -9% of the long term average, according to the latest weekly analysis of the India meteorological department (IMD) published on September 26, 2018. The rainfall was deficient or -10% by September 19, the preceding week.(Business Standard)

The southwest monsoon accounts for 70% of India’s annual rainfall and is important for its agricultural economy, which is valued at Rs 18 trillion ($250 billion in 2016), or 11% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

The IMD categorises monsoon rainfall as “deficient” at a state or a district level when it receives 20%-59% less rainfall than the long-term average and as "large deficient" when it is 60%-99% less. A deficient monsoon year is when the cumulative rainfall across the country remains -10% or above, once called an ‘All India Drought Year’.

Rainfall in 251 districts--nearly 37% of India’s districts--remained deficient to "large deficient" till the week ending September 26, 2018. In 11 states and union territories (UTs), including Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, 50% or more districts experienced deficient to "large deficient" rainfall, as per our analysis.

“Let us wait for the monsoon to end,” D Shivanand Pai, head of the climatic prediction group at the India Meteorological Department, Pune, told IndiaSpend. “Rainfall-deficient regions in the peninsula may receive more rainfall in the remaining days, which would improve over rainfall figures.”

If the overall rainfall nationwide drops by 1% more over the remaining three days of September 2018, it could likely be the sixth monsoon drought of the century, following 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2015....Read More

In pics: Heavy rain wrecks havoc across India, Yamuna crosses danger mark

More than 1500 people have been killed in India due to landslide, storm and flood this year.

Heavy Rainfall : Delhi has received 302.6 mm of rain in July. The rain is 11 per cent above normal. According to Indian Meteorological Department, Delhi is expected to witness light rainfall on Tuesday, while no rain is expected between Thursday and Sunday.

The Supreme Court of India lashed on Centre, the Uttar Pradesh government and Taj Trapezium Zone (TTZ) authority for their failure to restore the pristine glory of Taj Mahal. TTZ is an area of about 10,400 sq km spread over the districts of Agra, Firozabad, Mathura, Hathras and Etah in Uttar Pradesh and Bharatpur district of Rajasthan.

Over 10 person have ben killed and seven injured due to heavy downpour in Uttar Pradesh, in the last 24 hours. 11 deaths were reported from Sahranpur district. Chief minister Yogi Adityanath has directed officials to take extensive tours in the rain affected areas and identify dilapidated buildings and start the evacuation.

600 NDRF (National Disaster Response Force) personnel have been deployed in Assam to carry out resue operation in all the flood-hit regions. This year, many northeastern states have witnessed less rainfall than normal.

Incessant rainfall in Bihar has opened the floodgates of misery for people. On Sunday, state-run Nalanda Medical College and Hospital (NMCH) was inundated with water. Small fish was seen swimming in the flooded ICU.

The Bailey road, considered to be the lifeline of Patna, cave din due to incessant rainfall. Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, along with his cabinet colleagues visited the site.

More than 1500 people have been killed in India due to landslide, storm and flood, this year. The number of death, reported by National Emergency Response Center, recorded 139 in Maharashtra.

A road overbridge collapsed near Andheri on July 3 due to heavy rainfall that affected local and distance train services.

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Schools shut, trains delayed as heavy rains continue to batter Mumbai

Visibility at the Mumbai airport was 'not very good' but flights were operating according to schedule, an MeT official said.

Mumbai Heavy Rain : Torrential monsoon rains lashed the megapolis and its neighbouring areas, flooding streets, rail tracks and crippling life in the city.

The downpour -- the highest of the season so far in a day -- caused traffic jams as many roads and streets were flooded and people were seen wading through knee-deep water.

Vehicles on many roads were seen crawling because of the rain and low visibility, while potholes compounded the problem.

Several schools declared a holiday today and many office-goers decided to stay at home.

Suburban trains were running late by five to 15 minutes due to water-logging on rail tracks in some places.

According to a Western Railway official, movement of trains on some tracks, which got submerged, had to be stopped but services continued on other tracks with restricted speed.

There was also heavy water-logging in the central areas of Kurla, Sion and Dadar.

Mira Road (in adjoining Thane district), and Nallasopara and Vasai (in Palghar district) were largely affected due to the heavy showers.

Trains under Central Railway were moving slow, but no service was cancelled, an official said.

Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport (BEST) buses were slightly delayed, but no service was cancelled or suspended, a BEST spokesperson said.

The city's neighbouring areas got even more rains, and roads were submerged.

Visibility at the Mumbai airport was "not very good" but flights were operating according to schedule, an MeT official said, adding no warning has been issued for the aviation sector so far.

The meteorological department has forecast more heavy rains in Mumbai till Tuesday.

The Colaba observatory in south Mumbai recorded 170.6 mm rainfall in the last 24 hours (from 8.30 am yesterday), an official of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

"It is the highest rainfall of the season so far in 24 hours," IMD Mumbai's deputy director general K S Hosalikar told PTI.

The observatory in suburban Santacruz recorded 122 mm showers during the same period, he said, adding, "The city and its suburban areas received a good spell of showers yesterday. Mumbai got a widespread downpour as the rain intensity escalated to very active."

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