Sabarimala issue set to decide political fortunes in Kerala yet again

In the recent Lok Sabha polls, post-Sabarimala agitation, the Left front had suffered a massive drubbing, losing 19 out of the total of 20 seats.

As the Lord Ayyappa Temple in Sabarimala gears up for yet another annual pilgrim season next month, major political parties in Kerala are keeping their fingers crossed to know whether the women's entry issue will have any impact on the October 21 bypolls to five assembly constituencies.

The bypolls to be held in Vattiyoorkkavu, Konni, Ernakulam, Aroor and Manjeswaram are seen as a litmus test for the CPI(M)-led ruling LDF and the opposition Congress headed UDF and BJP-NDA ahead of the 2021 assembly elections.

LDF is going all out to ensure that the Sabarimala issue is not discussed in the ongoing campaigns as they had drawn flak from several quarters over the women's entry issue for its alleged hastiness in implementing the Supreme Court order, permitting women of all age groups into the hill shrine.

In the recent Lok Sabha polls, post-Sabarimala agitation, the Left front had suffered a massive drubbing, losing 19 out of the total of 20 seats.

The defeat of the Left and the sweep of the opposition Congress-UDF was generally seen as the impact of the Sabarimala issue.

During the ongoing campaign, the ruling front is trying its best to woo voters by focussing on development issues and listing out the achievements of the Pinarayi Vijayan led government.

Unlike the Lok Sabha polls, even senior Left leaders, including Vijayan, are steering clear of any controversial statements or provocative remarks on Sabarimala in campaigns.

Senior CPI(M) leader and Industries Minister E P Jayarajan had even said the Sabarimala issue would be in LDF's favour in the bypolls and Lord Ayyappa was helping them.

The recent victory of LDF candidate Mani C Kappan in Pala assembly segment, a traditional UDF bastion, had reinfused confidence among the Left cadres and leadership.

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2019 LS polls: Most NOTA votes in SC & ST reserved seats, Naxal-hit areas

States that saw a direct bi-polar contest between the two main national parties saw a higher NOTA vote-share as compared to states where there was a third alternative.

Lok Sabha constituencies reserved for the scheduled castes (SC) and scheduled tribes (ST), and constituencies in areas affected by left-wing extremism saw a higher percentage of voters choosing “none of the above” or NOTA in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, while states that saw a multi-party contest saw a lower share of votes cast for NOTA, our analysis of polling data has revealed.

Nationwide, NOTA recorded 6.5 million votes--more than the population of Ahmedabad, or 1.06% of all votes polled in the 2019 general election. This was lower than 1.08% (6 million) polled in 2014. Bihar saw the highest vote-share (2%) for NOTA this year, followed by Andhra Pradesh (1.49%), Chhattisgarh (1.44%) and Gujarat (1.38%).

The option to choose “none of the above” was put in place by the Supreme Court in its 2013 judgement following a writ petition by the People’s Union for Civil Liberties, a human rights body. NOTA was envisaged to help voters express dissent while still maintaining the secrecy of their ballot to help achieve greater participation in the exercise of democracy.

“When the political parties realise that a large number of people are expressing their disapproval with the candidates being put up by them, gradually there will be a systemic change and the political parties will be forced to accept the will of the people and field candidates who are known for their integrity,” the then Chief Justice P Sathasivam wrote in the judgement.

On October 29, 2013, the Election Commission of India announced that even if the NOTA votes were higher than any other candidate in a constituency, the candidate with the most votes will be declared the winner.

“This provision made the NOTA option almost redundant,” Jagdeep Chhokar, founding trustee of the Association for Democratic Reforms, wrote in this December 2018 comment in The Hindu. “...the provision clarified that a NOTA vote would not have any impact on the election result, which is what interests candidates, political parties, and voters. Soon after this, candidates began campaigning against NOTA, telling voters that choosing the option meant wasting a vote.”

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India missed 'golden opportunity' to resolve Kashmir issue in 1971: Modi

Addressing another rally in Gujarat's Patan, Modi said he had warned Pakistan of consequences if it did not return Indian Air Force pilot Abhinandan Varthaman.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday said India missed an “golden opportunity” to resolve the Kashmir dispute during the 1971 war when “under global pressure” it released hundreds of Pakistani troops, who were in the custody of Indian Army.

At an election rally in Barmer, Modi said then Congress government signed the Shimla agreement (in 1972) “under global pressure” and released over 90,000 prisoners of war (PoWs) instead of resolving the Kashmir dispute “in lieu of the PoWs.” “Pakistan troops were in our custody. A big area of Pakistan was also captured by the Indianforces in 1971 but the Congress government lost it on table in the Shimla agreement and they were released,” he said.

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“The government crumbled under global pressure and signed the Shimla agreement and the matter was closed. PoWs and the captured land were released. That was a golden opportunity to resolve the Kashmir dispute in lieu of the PoW,” he said.

Modi said India was not afraid of nuclear threats from Pakistan any more. “Otherwise, Pakistan used to give nuclear threats. What do we have? Have we kept it for ‘Diwali’ (Warna aay din nuclear button hai, ye kehte the. Hamare paas kya hai. Ye diwali ke liye rakha hai kya)”, Modi said.

Addressing another rally in Gujarat’s Patan, Modi said he had warned Pakistan of consequences if it did not return Indian Air Force pilot Abhinandan Varthaman.

He asserted his government’s commitment towards national security and said whether the prime minister's chair remains or not, he has decided that either he will be alive or the terrorists.

He also took a jibe at NCP leader Sharad Pawar, saying if he is unaware of his next move, then how can Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan gauge what he will do. Modi urged the people of Gujarat to help the BJP win all 26 Lok Sabha seats in his home state.

Following the air strike at Balakot terror camp in Pakistan, there was a dogfight between Indian and Pakistani fighter planes on February 27 in which the IAF wing commander was captured by the neighbouring country and released on the night of March 1.

He said after Abhinandan was caught, Opposition started seeking a reply from him. “We held a press conference and warned Pakistan that if anything happened to our pilot, you will keep telling the world what Modi did to you.”

“A senior American official said on the second day that Modi has kept 12 missiles ready and might attack and the situation will deteriorate. Pakistan announced return of the pilot, or else it was going to be a ‘qatal ki raat’,” he said.