Why India's upcoming general election is good news for the oil market

Election campaigning will boost fuel use in a nation where oil demand is already growing at the fastest pace in the world.

The largest democratic exercise on Earth is set to give the oil market a shot in the arm.

About 875 million Indians will go to polls over the next three months to elect their leader, dwarfing the 158 million Americans who registered to vote in the 2016 US residential elections. Before they vote, they’ll be courted by a slew of competing political parties -- a process that will boost fuel use in a nation where oil demand is already growing at the fastest pace in the world.

The lift will be provided by hordes of party faithful, who traverse teeming cities and remote villages across the world’s seventh-largest country in a campaigning frenzy before what’s expected to be a closely fought election. Their use of motorcycles and sports utility vehicles at a time when some refineries are closed for maintenance will support returns from making fuels in Asia over the next few months, according to a Bloomberg survey of traders who participate in the market.

“The election, which coincides with scheduled maintenance, should see India pull imports of gasoil and gasoline and this usually adds to bullish sentiment,” said WengInn Chin, a senior oil market analyst at Facts Global Energy in Singapore. In the lead up to the polls, the increased consumption is expected to increase gasoline and diesel demand by as much as 80,000 barrels a day, he said.

That will be in addition to the nation’s already growing demand for gasoline and diesel, consumption of which grew by about 75,000 barrels a day and 100,000 barrels a day, respectively, in January. Demand for liquefied petroleum gas is also surging, with state refiners seeking to import cargoes of the cooking fuel as the government tries to keep voter morale high by ensuring rural households are well supplied.

The profit from turning crude into diesel reached a two-month high late last month, and has climbed over 25 percent so far this year. Refinery maintenance will keep supplies tight in coming months, while the International Maritime Organization’s new rules on ship fuel next year will drive the fuel’s demand in the longer term. That’s set to keep the so-called crack at an average of $14.50 a barrel this month, according to the Bloomberg survey of traders.

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India's diesel consumption to hit record high ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha polls

Diesel consumption also faces increasing competition from electric vehicles.

India's diesel consumption may rise to a record this year on increasing infrastructure spending by the current government as it tries to hold off challengers in general elections that will be held over April and May.

Surging diesel consumption in India, the world's third-largest oil user, underscores the country's importance as a driver of global oil demand. Amid increasing concerns that crude demand growth may slip in 2019 because of slowing economic growth, India's burgeoning fuel consumption may help underpin oil and fuel prices.

Analysts at Fitch Solutions and consultants Wood Mackenzie forecast India's diesel demand to rise in 2019 by 5.7 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively, from 2018. The country consumed a record 6.9 million tonnes of diesel a month in 2018, or about 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd), data from the Ministry of Petroleum showed.

"There is strong energy demand which is bound to happen because of different sectors... We are a diesel driven economy," said Sanjiv Singh, chairman of Indian Oil Corp, the country's top refiner.

"The bottom-line remains that energy demand is bound to grow. We're seeing GDP at more than 7 percent, (and) ... a lot of urbanization," Singh added.

ALSO READ: 38 more cities to get diesel at doorstep as 3 OMCs plan to extend service

India's economy is expected to grow by 7.2 percent in the 2018/2019 financial year, which runs from April to March, versus 6.7 percent the previous year, according to government data.

"Tied to a constructive GDP outlook - and alongside the country's positive demographics, low vehicle penetration and loose monetary policy - is our forecast for rapid growth in vehicle sales, which again will be positive for diesel," said Peter Lee, an analyst at Fitch Solutions, adding that diesel cars account for nearly a quarter of new vehicles in India.

According to 2015 data, the latest available, from the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, India held 22 cars per 1,000 people versus 821 cars per 1,000 people in the United States.

Business Standard

Petrol crosses Rs 77 mark on rising global rates; diesel at Rs 68.50

Retail selling prices have been firming up since July 30 as international rates inched up.

Petrol prices have crossed the Rs 77 a litre mark for the first time in two months due to firming international rates.

Petrol price in Delhi was on Tuesday hiked by 9 paisa a litre to Rs 77.06 while diesel rates went up by 6 paisa to Rs 68.50 per litre, according to daily price notification issued by state-owned oil firms.

Fuel prices in Delhi are the cheapest in all metros and most state capitals due to lower sales tax or VAT.

Retail selling prices have been firming up since July 30 as international rates inched up. Rates have risen by Rs 0.90 a litre in case of petrol in nine days while diesel prices have risen by Rs 0.88 per litre.

Petrol price had touched an all-time high of Rs 78.43 a litre on May 29 and had since receded. On that day, the diesel price had touched an all-time high of Rs 69.30.

Petrol was last above the Rs 77-mark on June 9 when it was priced at Rs 77.02 a litre in Delhi. On that day, diesel was priced at Rs 68.28 per litre.

State-owned oil firms had in mid-June last year dumped 15-year practice of revising rates on 1st and 16th of every month in favour of daily price revisions.

High prices have off-and-on triggered demands for a reduction in excise duty but the government had ruled out any immediate cut.

The Centre currently levies a total of Rs 19.48 per litre of excise duty on petrol and Rs 15.33 per litre on diesel. On top of this, states levy Value Added Tax (VAT) - the lowest being in Andaman and Nicobar Islands where a 6 per cent sales tax is charged on both the fuel.

Mumbai has the highest VAT of 39.12 per cent on petrol, while Telangana levies the highest VAT of 26 per cent on diesel. Delhi charges a VAT of 27 per cent on petrol and 17.24 per cent on diesel.

The central government had raised excise duty on petrol by Rs 11.77 a litre and that on diesel by 13.47 a litre in nine installments between November 2014 and January 2016 to shore up finances as global oil prices fell, but then cut the tax just once in October last year by Rs 2 a litre.

This led to its excise collections from petro goods more than doubling in last four years - from Rs 991.84 billion in 2014-15 to Rs 2290.19 billion in 2017-18. States saw their VAT revenue from petro goods rise from Rs 1371.57 billion in 2014-15 to Rs 1840.91 billion in 2017-18.

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