Thursday, October 7, 2021

What does RBI ex-Guv Subbarao think of India's $5-trn economy goal?

 In an exclusive interview with Business Standard, former Reserve Bank Governor D Subbarao explained why doubling the economy in 4 years might be too ambitious. 


After a 7% economic contraction in 2020-21 financial year, India is eyeing over 9% growth in FY22. However, with extreme job losses, migration of labour from high-productive to low-productive jobs, and high inflation, policy makers may have to rethink the target of a $5-trillion economy by 2025. In an interview with Nikita Vashisht, former Reserve Bank Governor D Subbarao explained why doubling the economy in 4 years might be too ambitious. Highlights of the Q&A:

What’s the state of the economy as we are coming out of the second Covid wave?

• Economy contracted by 7.3% last year, estimated to grow 9.5-10% in FY22

• V-shaped recovery only in technical sense

• Growth lower than what it would have been if there was no pandemic

• Income loss is distressing, especially in a country like India

• Pandemic has left (economic) scars; need to be sensitive about them

How do we bridge the inequality gap?

• Need to generate employment

• Labour shifting from manufacturing to low-productivity agri sector

• The reverse should have been happening

Will 'Atmanirbhar' package be enough?

• Atmanirbhar package a wide canvas

• But it’s not a solution to the employment problem

• Employment issue worsening; need to enhance skills

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