Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Oil benchmarks settle at highest since 2014 on global supply shortage

 Analysts expect the latest weekly US oil inventory data to show a 1.9 million-barrel build in crude stocks


Oil prices edged up to their highest since 2014 on Tuesday, supported by a global supply shortage and strong demand in the United States, the world's biggest consumer.

The rally came ahead of U.S. inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Analysts expect the latest weekly U.S. oil inventory data to show a 1.9 million-barrel build in crude stocks. 

Brent futures rose 41 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $86.40 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended 89 cents, or 1.1%, higher at $84.65.

Those were the highest closes for both global benchmarks since October 2014.

"The energy crunch is still nowhere close to subsiding, so we expect prevailing strength in oil prices in November and December as supply lags demand and as OPEC+ stays on the sidelines," said Louise Dickson, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy.

OPEC+, comprising of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, is currently raising production by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month, but has pushed back against calls to boost output faster in response to the surge in prices.

"Crude prices continue to rise and pleas to OPEC to increase production continue to fall on deaf ears. The only thing that will get OPEC+ motivated is if private U.S. operators signal, they will increase production," said Edward Moya, senior market analysts at OANDA, noting "a jump to $90 oil seems likely."

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