Key Covid-19 indicators surged from Feb 2021 but govts failed to act

 Key epidemiological indicators such as the doubling time of Covid cases and the test positivity rate had started rising from mid-February 2021. Central and state governments ignored it until too late

Despite a growing rate of increase in Covid-19 cases and a higher proportion of samples testing positive, on average, since mid-February 2021, central and state governments did not act to impose more restrictions, upgrade health facilities and control the rise in Covid-19 cases, our analysis shows.

On May 1, 2020, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said that India would track Covid-19 hotspots on the basis of active cases in a district, the time it takes for confirmed cases to double, and testing and surveillance feedback. Starting from February 1, 2021, restrictions on public gatherings were relaxed, according to an order by the MHA, which added that guidelines to track containment zones and maintain social distancing should be enforced by local authorities.

Meanwhile, India's average doubling time of cases had been increasing since the end of July 2020, and reached a peak of 710 days on February 11, 2021. From then on, the doubling time started shrinking--from 522 days by February 28, 346 days by March 15 and 139 days by March 31, indicating that Covid-19 cases were growing fast.

All this while, states allowed large gatherings such as the Kumbh Mela and did not strictly enforce distancing, mask wearing and other guidelines. As of May 3, Covid-19 cases were doubling in India every 35.7 days. Its case numbers were increasing by over 300,000 and deaths by 3,500, on average, every day even as the media has been saturated with stories of undercounting of deaths and case numbers.