Bharti Airtel Q4 preview: Strong operating performance seen; ARPU may fall

 Emkay expects Bharti's underlying momentum to remain intact through mix improvement, resulting in the lowest wireless revenue decline of 2 per cent

Bharti Airtel is set to announce its March quarter results of FY21 (Q4FY21) on Monday amid expectations of a strong operating print and moderation in average revenue per user (ARPU) with interconnecting usage charge (IUC) going to zero. Analysts will keep a keen eye on the management's commentary on ARPU trajectory and nonwireless business.

For the entire telecom sector as well, Emkay expects the zero IUC regime to distort headline numbers and a decline in ARPU. Bharti was a net-payer of IUC while Jio and Vodafone Idea were net receivers on the Ebitda level.

Emkay expects Bharti's underlying momentum to remain intact through mix improvement, resulting in the lowest wireless revenue decline of 2 per cent, while Vodafone Idea and Jio may see 11 per cent and 5 per cent declines, respectively. Besides, Bharti Airtel is expected to outperform on data subscriber adds for the third quarter in a row.

Last week, Airtel Africa said its profit after tax (PAT) for the March 2021 quarter doubled to $154 million, helped by growth in key services like data and mobile money. The underlying revenue for the fourth quarter ended March 31 stood at $1,038 million, rising 15.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) on a reported currency basis.

At the bourses, Bharti Airtel remained flat (up 1.57 percent) in the quarter under review as compared to 3.68 per cent rise in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex in the same period, ACE Equity data show.

Here's what leading brokerages expect from Airtel's Q4FY21 numbers:

ICICI Securities

The brokerage sees continued traction in subscriber addition for Airtel at around 90 lakh for the quarter. It expects Q4FY21 to witness the impact of IUC going to zero, impacting both topline and costs. "The reported ARPU is likely to see around 6.5 per cent QoQ decline (around 9 per cent decline owing to IUC impact offset by around 2.5 per cent like to like growth) at Rs 155," it said.

ICICI Securities expects Indian wireless revenues to see 3.1 per cent sequential decline at Rs 14,326 crore while India non-wireless revenues traction may remain robust, especially broadband and enterprise. Consolidated reported revenues are expected to slip 1 per cent QoQ (up 10.7 per cent YoY) at Rs 26,252 crore while profit after tax (PAT) may come in at Rs 169 crore against the loss of Rs 5,237 crore reported in the year-ago quarter.