Thursday, January 23, 2020

India to Singapore: How airlines, passengers are responding to China virus


An explainer on the airline industry's response to the outbreak so far and its potential financial exposure compared to SARS in 2003.


Airlines and passengers are on guard against a new flu-like virus that originated in Wuhan, China.

Here's an explainer on the airline industry's response to the outbreak so far and its potential financial exposure compared to SARS in 2003, which killed nearly 800 people:

What is the expected financial impact on airlines?
The biggest concern is a sharp drop in travel demand if the virus becomes a pandemic.
During the height of the SARS outbreak in April 2003, passenger demand in Asia plunged 45%, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Cathay cut nearly 40% of its flights and reported a financial loss, as did Singapore Airlines Ltd, Japan Airlines Co Ltd and ANA Holdings Inc.

The industry is now more reliant on Chinese travellers.
For example, in Australia, Chinese travellers account for more than 15% of international arrivals, up from just 4% in 2003, according to Moody's ratings service.

Those travellers, who arrive mostly via mainland carriers, often take domestic flights once they arrive in Australia, pointing to the potential for knock on effects for the likes of local airline Qantas Airways Ltd if there is a fall in travel demand.

Since 2003, the number of annual air passengers has more than doubled, with China growing to become the world's largest outbound travel market.

In 2003, 6.8 million passengers from China travelled on international flights, and that number has grown by close to 10 times to 63.7 million in 2018, according to data from the country's aviation authority.

Global airline industry revenues more than doubled to $838 billion in 2019 from just $322 billion in 2003, according to IATA data.

"Whether only one secondary market, an entire country or the wider region is impacted is obviously unpredictable and outside of the industry's control," said Brendan Sobie, an independent aviation analyst in Singapore.

Business Standard

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