Future of food: Feeding 10 bn by 2050 requires genetically modified crops

Not only must crops be more productive, but the agricultural challenges of climate change-including disease, pests and periods of both drought and flooding-mean they must be more resilient as well.

Business Standard : Like it or not, genetic modification is going to be an important tool to feed the planet’s growing population.

If we want to feed 10 billion people by 2050, in a world beset by rising temperatures and scarcer water supplies, we will need to dramatically change the way we produce food. Increased public investment in technologies like genetic engineering is a vital piece of that, according to a report published Wednesday by the World Resources Institute.

Not only must crops be more productive, but the agricultural challenges of climate change—including disease, pests and periods of both drought and flooding—mean they must be more resilient as well.

“We have to increase yields dramatically, at an even higher rate than we’ve done historically,” said Tim Searchinger, lead author of the report. “It’s got to be done by growing smarter.”

The Green Revolution of the 20th century boosted food production using many tools, some of which are no longer available to most of today’s farmers. Fertilizer use has largely been maxed out, Searchinger said, and available water is running dry. Now, researchers need to find new ways to “grow smarter,” including through the use of genetic modification.

While public debate has centered on its two primary uses—in soybeans and corn for resistance to the pesticide glyphosate and production of a natural insecticide, Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), in corn and cotton—the WRI implores us to look further. “We do not believe that debate over these particular GM traits should dictate policy about the entire technology of genetic engineering,” the report says.

Instead, the report points out that genetic modification saved the Hawaiian papaya population from a deadly virus, and says it may be able to do the same for potatoes in Uganda, soybeans in Brazil and tomatoes in Florida.

“Everyone exaggerates the benefits and costs of these two traits of GMOs,” Searchinger said. “There are so many other things we can do, it’s hard to imagine why we’d be against it.”

The report also emphasizes the need for better breeding, laying out a four-pronged approach for increasing yields, each of which will require more public funding. First, breeding cycles need to be sped up, focusing not just on major improvements but also smaller, incremental ones.