Equities to retain P/E premium over EM peers, says Credit Suisse

 The medium-term outlook for equities remains positive but some caution is warranted in the short term, the brokerage said

India’s investment appeal among global investors has improved materially, given improved corporate balance sheets, focus on reforms, record foreign exchange reserves, and a good momentum on tax collections, says a report by Credit Suisse.

This improved outlook is clearly visible in India’s record-high price-to-earnings (P/E) premium over other emerging markets: The MSCI India trades at a 12-month forward P/E premium of 83 per cent versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, compared to the 10-year average premium of 42 per cent. Indian equities outperformed major global equities with the Nifty Index gaining 5.2 per cent compared with the MSCI World’s returns of 1.8 per cent in the last month (see table).

The medium-term outlook for equities remains positive but some caution is warranted in the short term, the brokerage said.

“While this high valuation could unnerve some investors, we suggest staying invested in equities, albeit with reduced portfolio risks. We are now moving away from our long-held relative preference for mid-cap stocks, toward a neutral view. We are raising the relative weight of Indian mega-caps to neutral as well,” the brokerage’s recent report, authored by its head of India equity research Jitendra Gohil and equity research analyst Premal Kamdar, said.

The analysts expect some underperformance by Indian equities, given stretched valuation. Nevertheless, they expect the equities to command a better valuation premium over EM peers.