Stay light; keep an eye on key Nifty levels: Sameet Chavan of Angel Broking

 With Friday's move, 15,200 - 15,400 has become a sturdy wall for Nifty and it would really be a daunting task surpassing this in the absence of any major trigger

Nifty outlook

Last week, trading started on a flat note but as the week progressed, we witnessed a gradual up move in the market. The optimism in global peers (especially the US bourses) was the main catalyst behind this strength in our markets. Almost every session during the week started with a decent upside gap and importantly, it managed to hold on to it. A similar sort of strength was visible on Friday as well at the opening as Nifty was very much on the move towards its record highs. However, all of a sudden, traders chose to take some money off the table, and hence post the mid-session, we witnessed a sharp decline to not only pare down all gains but also to sneak well inside the negative terrain.

Barring the second half of Friday, the market almost had a unidirectional move throughout the truncated week. However, post the gap up, we did not see any major action in indices as they kept oscillating within a small range by maintaining their positive posture. The real action was seen in individual themes which also were missing on Friday. Now with Friday’s move, 15,200 – 15,400 has become a sturdy wall for Nifty and it would really be a daunting task surpassing this in the absence of any major trigger on the global as well as domestic front. On the flip side, the key support is placed at 14925 – 14850. A sustainable violation of these supports would lead to extended correction and in that case we may see Nifty sliding towards 14,700 or may even test a recent swing low of 14,467. If we meticulously observe the hourly chart, a breakdown from the ‘Rising Wedge’ pattern is clearly visible, which certainly does not bode well for the bulls. All eyes would be on the global peers as they play a vital role in dictating the near-term direction for our market.

On Friday, most of the sectoral indices, too, saw some decent profit booking. The banking and midcap indices are placed at crucial support. It would be interesting to see how they behave at the beginning of the forthcoming week. Apart from this, the ‘Volatility Index (VIX)’ which had cooled off and sneaked below the 19 marks, again surged to reclaim the 21 levels. A further spike in this fear index could lead to higher volatility in our market. Hence, traders are advised to stay light and should keep a close tab on all the above-mentioned levels.